Georgia Swing State Betting: Odds Tip Trump To Hammer Harris As Poll Lead Widens

UK betting sites believe Donald Trump has a 42% greater chance of winning the state of Georgia than his rival Kamala Harris as we inch towards the November presidential election.

Georgia is a core battleground state in the 2024 US election. It has backed the winning candidate in eight of the last 12 presidential elections going back to 1976.

It became a contested state in the 1980s and voted Republican solidly between 1992 and 2016 before flipping Blue to hand Joe Biden a decisive victory over Trump four years ago.

Georgia has become the centre of controversy ever since, with Trump alleged to have sought to interfere with the 2020 election result in the state and exert pressure on officials to “find 11,780 votes”. Trump is up on eight charges, with the case expected to begin at some point in 2025.

Still, the furore around the Georgia election fall-out has seemingly done little to harm Trump’s chances of winning the state this time around.

Harris is playing catch-up, with the polls suggesting Trump's lead is anywhere between one and four points. At this stage of the election it’s hard to see how Harris recovers the numbers needed to get over the line.

No wonder the bookies are lining up to pay out on Trump winning Georgia.

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Georgia Election Odds

Latest Georgia Election Betting Odds

Indeed, politics betting sites are all siding with Trump and the Republicans to win Georgia on November 5. 

William Hill has shortened its price on Trump to 2/5 in recent days, which suggests a 71.4% probability.

That’s a huge drop as Trump opens up a 1.8% poll lead on his rival. 

Harris, meanwhile, is now 9/4 with Unibet. Those odds suggest a 30.8% chance, which means the Democrats’ odds have worsened since Joe Biden was replaced.

Georgia has been a Red-leaning state since Bill Clinton’s first term and only shifted back to Biden in 2020 after a hard-fought campaign from the Democrats. In another era Trump would easily win this state but the polls think the race is closer than what the odds suggest.

Why are betting apps going so big on Trump? Well, it’s partially to do with the 57% of punters who are backing the Republican candidate. The more people bet on Trump, the shorter his odds get.

And yet there is more to the betting market that meets the eye.

Who Will Win Georgia?

Trump tried and failed to get the Georgia count overturned in 2020 but he still insists he won the state. He didn’t, but he’s likely to this time. 

Voters are primarily concerned about the cost of living, which has increased over the four years since Trump was last in office.

The American economy is booming compared to global standards, yet voters aren’t necessarily feeling the benefit.

Georgia has five pivot counties and Trump retained them all in 2020. Biden won the entire state – and its 16 electoral college votes – by 0.2% of the electorate.

Trump leads Harris in poll aggregators by 1.8%. That’s a 1.5% uptick in a month as he pulls away from the Democrat. Harris is really struggling here and Georgia almost appears to be a lost cause for the Dems.

Indeed, forecasting from The Hill suggests Trump has a 65% chance of winning this contest, which is much closer to the betting odds than any individual poll.

Harris can still win the state but she needs to offer Georgians something tangible. She cannot rely on being the “not Trump” candidate here.

Healthcare has shot up the agenda across the state. Harris says Trump will scrap the Affordable Care Act, Trump says he will “do much better than Obamacare”. 

Voters aren’t sure who to trust right now but Trump is the known entity, having been president before.

Remarkably, the controversy created by Trump’s reaction to the 2020 presidential election seems to bare little influence on this campaign. 

Georgians appear willing to give Trump a second chance and are not yet convinced Harris is a better alternative.

The Democrats have started to rely on PA’s 19 electoral college votes, but now they have to scramble for them.

The state has a heady mix of voters due to its diversity. Rural counties generally backed Trump in 2020, while Biden claimed the votes of those living in cities. 

Meanwhile, Philadelphia usually supports the Dems and Pittsburgh backs the GOP. The difference between Biden and Trump was about 80,000 votes four years ago.

However, the true reason PA is a swing state is because of the smaller urban areas of Harrisburg, Allentown-Bethlehem, Erie and Scranton that regularly flip.