How Long Will Donald Trump Last As US President?

Betting sites believe Donald Trump has a one-in-three chance of being impeached during his second term as US president, as the world reacts to the tariffs he plans to impose on America’s trading partners.
Stock markets wobbled after Trump threatened to slap a 25% tariff on all Mexican and Canadian goods, while a 10% tax on Chinese imports has come into effect. Tariffs on the European Union are also expected as Trump bemoans America’s trade deficit.
Trump’s supporters are firmly behind the move, even though it’s likely to raise prices on hundreds of goods, which will hit Americans hard.
His detractors have criticised the decision but can’t do much to stop it. The new tariffs show that Trump isn’t messing around in his second term in office – he wants to get things done the way he likes it.
Yet some betting apps believe Trump may not have made the right call here. A flurry of bets on Trump being impeached during his second term have forced the odds down to an all-time low.
Remember we’re less than a month into his presidency.
Donald Trump Odds
Indeed, William Hill have dropped their odds on Trump being impeached from 3/1 to a new price of 2/1.
Those odds suggest a 33.3% probability, which is remarkably high for a sitting president who oversees a party majority in Congress.
However, it also reveals how much Trump is unwilling to play by the rulebook.
In threatening to impose tariffs on America’s allies, he risks losing international political support and making Americans poorer. It’s a big gamble.
If it works, Trump will be heralded as a hero who pushed America into its “new golden age.”
If it doesn't, then the finger of blame could point to his door. Mexico and Canada have already negotiated a delay to their tariff impositions.
Not everyone backs Trump. Republican senator Mitch McConnell – a known critic – said the tariffs “will drive the cost of everything up. In other words, it will be paid for by American consumers”.
The Democrats are naturally opposed to it. William Hill recently cut their odds of Trump losing his job in 2025 from 16/1 to 10/1. Perhaps his position really is at risk.
Will Trump Be Impeached?
Of course, Trump’s economic policies would have to be utterly ruinous for the Republicans to consider ousting him.
There are more MAGA figures in the House and Senate than during Trump’s first term. With a majority in both chambers, the chances of Republicans impeaching their leader are slim.
However, that’s not to say it couldn’t happen later in his premiership.
The 2026 US midterms could produce a big swing back to the Democrats, especially if Americans don’t feel the benefit of Trump’s economic aspirations.
Trump is always up for a fight and would defend his record even if the economy tanked.
Yet impeachment would be possible if the Dems had a significant enough majority in both chambers and evidence to convict.
That’s still a long way off, and bookmakers price a 2029 exit at a firm 1/3. For now, Trump’s job is safe.
And yet, there is a growing sense among political betting sites that Trump, who will be 82 in 2028, could choose to quit early and cede power to vice president JD Vance.
More bets are being placed on a 2028 Trump exit. The reasoning is that Trump needs a Republican president after he leaves the White House to protect him from the Democrats.
Vance’s best possible shot at winning the 2028 US election would be to campaign as president, backed by Trump, in the final few months of the year.
Vance could easily have the platform he needs to sweep to victory, just as Trump did in 2024.
It would be a bold move, but Trump has already proven to be a skilled politician – and not someone you can predict easily.
That’s why punters are eyeing a 2028 exit with more interest than backing Trump to see out his second term.
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