How Long Will Donald Trump Last As US President?

Betting sites appear confident that Donald Trump will complete a full second term as US president, but believe there’s a genuine chance he cedes power in 2028.

Trump won the 2024 US election with a thumping victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. 

Since then, the incoming president has been working on selecting his cabinet and offering up policy plans for his first days in office.

Trump – the new Time Person of the Year – will officially become president in January, meaning his four-year term would end in January 2029. Bookmakers reckon there’s a good chance he will stay in the job until then.

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And yet, there remains a possibility that Trump doesn’t complete his second term. The doubt is similar to the concerns over Joe Biden’s ability to run the country while he was in the White House.

Betting apps are wary of what might come Trump’s way over the next four years, which is why they’ve opened a market on his presidential longevity.

And the odds make for interesting reading when you consider only nine US presidents have failed to complete a term in office – the most recent being Richard Nixon 50 years ago.

Donald Trump Odds

The latest Donald Trump odds make for good and bad reading, depending on how you view the US presidency. 

On the one hand, Trump is 2/5 with political betting sites to complete his first term. Those odds carry a 71.4% probability which, one would think, is pretty well priced.

Yet the fact a sitting US president has almost a one-in-three chance of losing his job while in office isn’t exactly good for the stability of the world’s most influential democracy.

On the other hand, Trump is 5/1 with William Hill to leave his job in 2028. That 16.7% probability seems low but actually it’s high for a political system that rarely deposes its presidents.

Interestingly, one third of all bets on this market back Trump to complete his term, while another third reckon he’ll be gone in 2025. The final third is split between exits in other years.

So, how safe is Trump’s job? That’s what bettors are trying to figure out as the president-elect prepares for his inauguration.

Will Trump Complete A Second Term?

There are a few major question marks hanging over Trump, which are fuelling bets on him not completing his second term.

The first one is age. Trump is 78 and appeared weary on the campaign trail at times. He survived a bullet that would have immediately retired most other people. 

Does he have the energy and mental capacity for four exhausting years in the White House? Probably.

The second concern for the Trump presidency is the aforementioned assassination attempt. Two people tried to kill him during the campaign. 

Security will follow Trump wherever he goes but America is a country with an armed population. Another assassination attempt can’t be ruled out.

The third worry for Trump is impeachment – although this is highly unlikely now. 

The Supreme Court’s ruling that sitting presidents can effectively do whatever they like so long as they can argue it’s part of their “official duties” means Trump is highly unlikely to be impeached. 

What’s more, a Republican majority in Congress makes this practically impossible.

The only genuinely realistic way Trump will end his presidency early is if he cedes power to vice president JD Vance. He could do this as a means of giving Vance the best possible shot at the 2028 US election.

Step down before the campaign in early 2028 and Trump can, he’ll hope, see out his retirement without a Democratic president breathing down his neck.

That’s why bettors are looking at this market and wondering if Trump’s presidency could end in 2028, before his term is up.

Bettors have plenty to weigh up when assessing this market.