Kemi Badenoch Prime Minister Odds: Will Tory Head Be In Charge At Next Election?

Betting sites believe Kemi Badenoch has a 50/50 chance of leading the Conservatives into the next UK general election following her triumph in the Tory leadership contest.

Badenoch beat Robert Jenrick with over 56% of the vote in the final round of the Conservative leadership race that rumbled on all summer and autumn.

Now in charge of the party, she is tasked with resurrecting the Tories’ reputation, recouping votes off Reform UK, and acting as an effective opposition to Labour.

This is no easy task and Badenoch, who only entered Westminster politics in 2017, has a lot to sort out.

Time is on her side. The next UK election is not scheduled until 2029 and the Conservatives don’t really have the numbers in parliament to challenge Labour on much.

Saying that, a Donald Trump White House, potential governmental changes in France and Germany, and solid support for alt-right politics across the country mean Badenoch could make an impact here.

Yet the bookies think she’s only slightly more likely to lead the Tories into the next UK election than not.

Kemi Badenoch Odds

The reason for this is instability in UK politics right now. Sir Keir Starmer has tried to bring some normality back to Westminster but the July election result exposed deep divisions in the country, while America’s re-election of Trump shows how the hamster wheel keeps turning.

Ladbrokes offer a price of 5/6 on Badenoch leading the Conservatives into the next election. Those odds carry a 54.5% probability. 

Its price for Badenoch being ousted before the election sits at 10/11 (52.4%). Deduct the house take from the equation and these odds are effectively 50% for either outcome.

That is a remarkable price for someone who just secured the party leadership and widespread support of Tory members.

Badenoch was better placed than Jenrick to take this party forward. She appeals to the right-wing of her party that switched to Reform in the election. 

She is straight-talking and quick to respond to questions. This sometimes gets her in hot water but generally her base likes what they hear.

How she faces up to Starmer in Prime Minister’s Questions will give us an early understanding of her ability – and willingness – to really take on Labour for centrist voters. She has to appeal to a wide voter base here, from centrists to the alt-right.

And this is why betting apps aren’t so sure on her longevity prospects. 

Being Conservative leader was difficult when in power, it could be almost impossible out of it. There are factions in the party that want something different, which is why so many voters fled to the Lib Dems and Reform at the last election.

Will Badenoch Be Prime Minister?

Ladbrokes are likely to shift their odds on Badenoch in the spring following what is expected to be a difficult winter for Starmer. 

Trump’s presidency will probably help set the tone among Conservative and Reform MPs at PMQs.

Five years is a long time to get her party ready for the next election. It’s eminently possible that she will lead a government-in-waiting into the 2029 vote, or could be out long before then.

Jenrick would be favourite to replace her if she’s toppled. Yet Boris Johnson has persistently refused to rule out returning to frontline politics. Were Tories to get a whiff of his return then she could be ousted just like Theresa May was in 2019.

For now, Badenoch just has to keep her head down, point to Labour’s mistakes and build trust across her party. 

Do that and she’ll be able to buffer inevitable challenges to her leadership, knowing she has wide support behind her.

But, if the Tories start isolating their own leader, then it’s very likely she will be gone before Starmer calls the next election.