Canadian Election Odds 2025: Conservatives Ahead As Trudeau Scrambles For Second
Betting sites expect Canadians to vote for a Conservative government in the federal election and push Justin Trudeau out of office after 10 years at the helm.
Canadians head to the ballot boxes in October 2025 and the polls suggest Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre will become the new prime minister.
The centre-right party, which has acted as the main opposition to Trudeau’s minority government these past four years, looks on course to secure a majority.
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They need 172 seats or more to rule as a majority government – something the Liberals failed to do over the past two elections, which has partially led to the current dissatisfaction with Trudeau.
The polls put Poilievre and co around 21 points ahead of the Liberal Party. That’s the sort of lead Labour had over the Conservatives heading into the UK’s 2024 general election.
And it looks as though betting apps are ready to call this one too, with some plunging their odds to record lows.
Canadian Election Betting Odds
The latest odds from BetVictor suggest the Conservatives are well on course to win a majority.
Their odds have been steadily falling since the spring of 2023, when poll after poll suggested a preference for them over the Liberals.
A four-point lead became 10 in August 2023, and 16 by December that year. Since then the polls have held firm with a 20-point lead now the norm.
That sort of lead heading into a parliamentary election almost certainly wins the Conservatives a majority.
Canadian Election Odds 2025: To Win A Majority
Party | Odds | Bookmaker |
Conservatives | 1/10 | |
Liberal | 5/1 | |
New Democratic | 35/1 | |
Bloc Quebecois | 100/1 | |
Green | 200/1 |
Some polls suggest they could win upwards of 200 seats.
What’s more, it appears as though the New Democrats are pushing to overtake the Liberals. The latest polls suggest just a two-point difference between the two parties.
No wonder, then, that political betting sites have crushed their odds on a Conservative majority as short as 1/10.
That’s the sort of price Labour were in the UK heading into their July 2024 election, as they soared ahead of the Tories in the polls.
The Liberals, by contrast, are a fairly meek 5/1 at Ladbrokes. That suggests a 16.7% possibility or Trudeau keeping his job. In reality, it’s not going to happen.
Who Will Win The Canadian Election?
As the odds and the polls suggest, Conservative leader Poilievre is almost certain to win the election in Canada. He has carved open a strong poll lead and has a 45% approval rating, compared to Trudeau’s 33%.
Economic issues are what’s driving the debate right now. Canada has experienced inflation and high living costs like many western nations and is grappling to keep the economy in check.
There is also a right-wing boost in politics following the election of Donald Trump just across the border.
Canada doesn’t have a serious candidate like Trump running for prime minister but the Conservatives are already figuring out how they will work with a Trump White House that could be economically hostile.
Trudeau has already dined with Trump following the president-elect’s suggestion he will slap a 25% tariff on Canadian goods when he takes office.
Poilievre will have to play it cool with America too, if he is to steer Canada to calmer waters than the current state of the economy.
How The Canadian Election Works
Canadians will vote in the next federal election in 2025 to appoint a new parliament and, in turn, a new prime minister.
Canada’s House of Commons is made up of 343 seats, so a party needs 172 at least to govern as a majority.
The Liberals have failed to do this in the last two elections.
In 2025, the Conservatives are expected to be the biggest party and should comfortably secure a majority.
Candidates stand for election in one of Canada’s 343 constituencies. These are based on population and can range from overseeing 116,000 people to just 36,800.
Members win a constituency if they gain more votes than anyone else. The first-past-the-post system is also used in the UK and usually favours the bigger political parties.
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