How Long Will Sir Keir Starmer Last As UK Prime Minister?

Betting sites have lengthened their odds on Sir Keir Starmer leading Labour into a future general election as pressure mounts on the prime minister less than a year into his reign.

Starmer’s party holds a big majority in the House of Commons, which means they can effectively push through any legislation they see fit.

However, a hard-hitting autumn budget has caused cracks to appear within Labour, as MPs who won their seats at the July election are denied funding for public services that their constituents desperately need.

Labour are tightening the purse strings in the hope the economy will grow in the spring.

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It means there’s a tough winter coming for many people and the Conservatives, now led by Kemi Badenoch, are turning the screw on the new government.

Dissatisfaction with the PM has now hit 61%.

Starmer’s job security was first cast into doubt over the freebies scandal that led newspaper headlines for the best part of a month.

Labour’s decision to axe the winter fuel allowance for many pensioners and impose an inheritance tax on farmers hasn’t gone down well either.

No wonder, then, that UK bookmakers have again lenthened their odds on Starmer keeping his job until the next election, which is currently scheduled for 2029.

Keir Starmer Odds

More political betting sites have nudged their odds on Starmer leading Labour at the next election from 4/7 to 4/6. 

That new price carries a 60% probability, which is a little worrying for a prime minister not yet 12 months into his job.

Starmer delivered a massive victory at the last election, but that enthusiasm seems to have already eroded.

His odds have taken a tumble too. Having once been nailed on to win the next election, he is now 3/1 to be out of the job some time in 2025.

Those odds reflect the possibility of Labour MPs growing tired of Starmer and seeking to oust him next year.

Interestingly, the odds of Starmer leaving office in 2027 have come down to 5/1 in recent days. 

One explanation for that movement is this would mark the halfway point of the parliament.

If Labour can’t get the UK economy moving by this point then the party might seek to appoint a new leader in time for the 2029 election.

Who Could Replace Starmer?

Betting apps reckon Wes Streeting is favourite to be the next Labour leader after Starmer. 

The health secretary’s odds have fluctuated in recent weeks but now sit at 6/1. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is also 6/1 and it’s not a surprise to see both of their names up there.

After all, Labour’s electoral victory was down to the public’s hope that it can improve a creaking NHS and deliver growth back to the economy. 

The health secretary and chancellor are always in the media spotlight.

Deputy leader Angela Rayner is another candidate at 10/1 and she would be a great shout, especially if Labour members get to vote on the next leader. 

Rayner is considered left of centre compared to Reeves and Streeting, so would be a more palatable option for the extreme wings of the party.

Of course, it’s also eminently possible that Starmer keeps his job and leads Labour into the next election. 

He’d have a tough ride if he does, with the odds suggesting the Conservatives (6/4) are favourites to beat Labour (7/4) to the most seats.

There is also the growing threat of Reform UK and the impending return of Donald Trump in the White House. 

Starmer is going to have to fend off a lot of right-wing rhetoric over the coming years.

Meanwhile, he is already accused of being centre-right in his policy decisions, which doesn’t help his efforts to get support from the left. 

He is somewhat stuck right now, with any policy proposal being blasted by one of two sides.

Starmer knew he would be walking a tightrope when he came into office but the last six months have been very tough. 

Whether he has the appetite – or the ability – to remain in power all the way to 2029 remains to be seen.