Premier League Run-In: Why Stats Favour Liverpool For Title

This weekend, the Premier League returns from the last international break of the season, with Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City resuming their battle to win the title. 

Each side has 10 games left to play; it’s all to play for. Every point will be sacred in their quest to get their hands on the trophy on Sunday, May 19. 

Arsenal and Liverpool are on 69 points each, with Mikel Arteta’s side top on goal difference. Despite the defending champions City being a point behind in third place, they are the favourites with football betting sites.

Gambling.com have broken down the remaining games for each, highlighting which side is most likely to come out on top, based on recent seasons, the average league position and winning percentage of the opponents they have left to play.

Find out why it’s looking good for Klopp to bow out a winner and why it’s not looking good for the Gunners.

Reds Can Give Klopp A Premier Send Off

It’s hard to believe that Jurgen Klopp only has 10 more Premier League games to take charge of. 

But will there be a league title waiting for him at the end of those matches? Our data tells us there will be. 

Manchester City may have won the title in each of the last three seasons, but over the final 10 games of each campaign, Liverpool actually accrued more points than the eventual champions.

In the reverse fixtures against their remaining 10 opponents, Liverpool have taken an impressive 23 points and a similar return will take them to 87 points. 

One of their remaining fixtures is a trip to Everton, which is always a challenging fixture, even more so this season with the Toffees battling against relegation. 

Eight of Liverpool’s last 10 visits to Goodison Park have finished all square, but will the League Cup winners be happy to take a point and move on? 

The game, which should have been played on the weekend of the FA Cup quarter-finals, has been scheduled for April 24 and will be one of four successive away games for the Reds. 

The Reds could be distracted by their involvement in the FA Cup and the Europa League as they look to send their manager off with multiple trophies.

Gunners Are Going To Have To Wait

This time last year, Arsenal looked set to win their first Premier League title since they completed their ‘Invincible’ season of 2003/04. 

But a late-season collapse saw the Gunners take 15 points from a possible 30, which allowed Manchester City to usurp them and win the title by five points.

Have Arsenal learnt anything from last season? We will find out in the final 10 games of the season, but betting apps have the Gunners as third favourites.

Statistically, the Gunners have the toughest run-in; their 10 remaining opponents have a winning percentage of 43.8%, the highest of the three title rivals.

Last season wasn’t the only time the Gunners have stumbled over the course of the final 10 games of a season.

Of the 150 total points available in the final 10 games over the last five seasons, Arsenal have taken 85 (56.7%), compared to Liverpool and Manchester City, who have taken 124 in that period. 

While their title rivals have their sights set on a treble, Mikel Arteta is hoping to guide his side to a Premier League and Champions League double, which can be backed at 16/1 on new betting sites. 

Like Liverpool, the Gunners also have an away derby to deal with and a trip to Tottenham, who are fighting for fourth spot, would love nothing more than to derail their rivals on Sunday, April 28.

Will City Cope With Double Treble Pressure?

If Manchester City thought it was tough to win the treble last season, they will be pushed all the way to win back-to-back trebles this term. 

Chelsea stand in City’s way in the FA Cup semi-finals, while Real Madrid await in the quarter-finals of the Champions League. 

And unlike in previous seasons, when they only had Liverpool to contend with in the title race, they now have the Gunners to deal with. 

And their first game back after the international break is at home to Arsenal, which won’t decide the title, but it could have a serious impact on either team’s chances if they lose. 

Pep Guardiola will have spent the international break preparing for the visit of Arsenal, hoping to exact revenge for a 1-0 defeat at the Emirates in October. 

Of the three title challengers, City have picked up the fewest points in the reverse fixtures against their final 10 opponents. 

An average of 1.7 points might not be enough to see them land their fourth successive league title and their sixth in seven seasons.

All three title challengers have four common opponents between now and end of the season - Aston Villa, Brighton, Tottenham and Wolves. Arsenal and Liverpool have taken seven points from these opponents this season while City have taken just four. 

Erling Haaland should be fit to lead their line. Assuming the injury he picked up while away with Norway isn’t too serious, he will have a big role to play for City in the run-in.