AFL Betting Tips 2024, Round 21: Top Picks And Betting Trends

• Port Adelaide To Beat Sydney - 1.96 With Ladbrokes
• Collingwood Vs Carlton Over 169.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
• Fremantle -9.5 Points Vs Essendon - 1.9 With Bluebet

What a weekend Round 20 was for followers of our regular AFL best bets blog, with five of our six selections delivering readers an outstanding profit of more than 75%!

Despite there still being 13 contenders for the eight spots in September footy, the last couple of weeks have seen eight teams emerge as challengers to ladder leaders Sydney to be crowned Premiers at the MCG in two months’ time.

Six of the top nine head into this round on winning streaks, which should make for some fascinating encounters, particularly GWS-Hawthorn and Essendon-Fremantle on Sunday.

Such form has also in part influenced our choices for this week as we scan the dozens of markets on our favourite AFL betting sites for some value. 

Port Adelaide Vs Sydney, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)

We’ll be keeping a close eye on both Saturday night matches this week, including the game at the Adelaide Oval where in-form Port Adelaide are out to collect an eighth consecutive win against the rapidly diminishing Sydney Swans.

Port’s Premiership credentials were tested by a series of losses to fellow finalist hopefuls Carlton, GWS and Brisbane, but they have since picked up a few surprising victories to move into the top eight and extend their record as underdogs to 3-4 this season.

They gave us an easy watch last week when we tipped them to cover the line against Carlton - which they did by about 16 points - and we expect them to get August off to a stellar start against struggling opponents who across their last eight matches have kicked a total of 12.25 prior to quarter-time.

That’s an average of just 12 first-quarter points per game, whereas Port Adelaide’s quarter-time score of 2.2 last week was their lowest in nine rounds. 

They could run away with this match from the beginning, and hopefully Ollie Wines will have a big say in it after accumulating 25+ touches in three of his last four outings.

You can get near Even money across some Australian betting sites for him to do so again.

Best Bet: Port Adelaide To Win - 1.96 With Ladbrokes

Player Prop: Ollie Wines 25+ Disposals - 1.87 With Bet365

Collingwood Vs Carlton, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)

The 265th meeting between the VFL-AFL’s oldest and fiercest rivals will take place in circumstances rarely seen in recent years.

The navy blues appeared September-bound for most of the season and the men in black and white became the latest after Melbourne and Richmond to suffer the dreaded ‘Premiership hangover’.

Carlton are in tremendous form in enemy territory, winning nine of their last 10 games at the almighty MCG, and are therefore very warm favourites with AFL betting apps to begin turning around a history of nine losses from their last 11 meetings with the Pies. 

The last two head-to-heads were taken out by the team accompanying the away dressing room and the one graded by Aussie betting sites as the underdogs, including Collingwood’s narrow six-point win earlier this year in the middle of an eight-game unbeaten streak.

These teams have headed in opposite directions since then, but we’ll remain wary of the chance of this game to produce a shock result and will instead look to the total points market, where the mark of 169.5 points is well below the average of all 19 matches involving Carlton this year (184.5) as well as Collingwood’s 19 (172.5).

Collingwood forward Dan McStay recently made a long-awaited and careful return from an ACL injury through the VFL and repaid their patience with three goals against Richmond.

He has now kicked 2+ goals in nine of his last 11 AFL matches, therefore presenting a great price on Bet365 to continue building some consistency against the league’s fifth-worst defensive unit.

Best Bet: Over 169.5 Total Points - 1.9 With PlayUp

Player Prop: Dan McStay To Kick 2+ Goals - 2.2 With Bet365

Essendon Vs Fremantle, Sunday, 3:20pm (AEST)

Essendon’s vastly inferior percentage of 95.61 could really come back to bite them in four weeks’ time for it could potentially squeeze them out of the eight should they be in the midst of a logjam.

Despite being just two points (plus percentage) out of the eight, many pundits have effectively written them off after they lost each of their last four matches as favourites.

Failing to cover the pre-match line in nine of their last 10 outings also underlines just how underwhelming they have been from a wagering perspective, and it gives us great confidence in backing a Fremantle side with a 63% success rate at beating the line in 2024.

The Dockers have also refused to play struggling teams into winning form by taking out each of their last seven games against sides that had also lost their preceding match, including Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast and Gold Coast in recent weeks. 

Starting the round sixth in the Coleman Medal race, it’s no wonder that Josh Treacy is the favourite with AFL betting sites to kick 2+ goals for what would be an eighth time from 11 games at Optus Stadium.

It looks a sound investment and you’ll get a decent price on Ladbrokes to multi it up with the Dockers at the line.  

Here’s to another successful weekend!

Best Bet: Fremantle -9.5 Points - 1.9 With Bluebet

Player Prop: Josh Treacy To Kick 2+ Goals - 1.55 With Ladbrokes