AFL Betting Tips 2024, Round 22: Top Picks And Betting Trends

• Essendon -12.5 Points To Beat Gold Coast - 1.9 With Bluebet
• Melbourne Vs Port Adel Under 168.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp
• Carlton Vs Hawthorn Wire To Wire (Any Other Result) - 1.97 With Unibet

Readers of our regular AFL best bets blog followed up our best week of the year with a small hit, which would have been limited to about 10-15% if they had taken the remarkable overs (1.96) on Port Adelaide at time of publication.

Nonetheless, it means we remain in excellent shape heading into the third-last round of the season, which could be the most thrilling of 2024 so far. 

Almost every game this weekend could be potentially decisive in shaping an increasingly tense finals race in which no team has mathematically sealed their place with three weeks to go and only five have been ruled out so far. 

We have selected a range of interesting markets across our preferred Australian betting sites as well as three popular player bets to sink your teeth into. 

Essendon Vs Gold Coast, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)

The Gold Coast Suns were halfway to ending their lengthy away drought last weekend but fell away as they failed to convert a half-time lead into victory for the first time in 2024, leaving their finals chances all but mathematically shot.

For that they can thank an away losing streak that now stretches to 16 matches, and on Saturday night under the Marvel Stadium lights we’re anticipating that becomes 17 against Essendon who got over the line against Fremantle to keep their own flame flickering.

So contrasting have the Suns been at home and away across their failed campaign that in their 16 games to take place since the end of Gather Round in Adelaide the pre-match line was covered by the home team on an incredible 15 occasions.

With only one team effectively having anything to play for, it’s hard to see the Suns finding the motivation and belief to reverse that trend here.

Some AFL betting sites are offering the same odds for Bombers forwards Kyle Langford and Jake Stringer to record multiple goal hauls, making them a popular option with punters.

But on the basis of Langford doing so in five of seven games at Marvel Stadium this season and 14 of 20 across all venues, compared with nine of 20 for Stringer, the better value is with Langford. 

Best Bet: Essendon -12.5 Points - 1.9 With Bluebet

Player Prop: Kyle Langford To Kick 2+ Goals - 1.67 With Ladbrokes

Melbourne Vs Port Adelaide, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)

We’ll have one eye on Marvel Stadium and another across the CBD at the MCG where the 2021 Premiers Melbourne are making a last-ditch bid for finals, though it certainly doesn’t look promising following three consecutive losses against likely finalists.

One has to go way back to Round 8 to find the last time that the Demons beat any of the teams starting this weekend in the top eight, which doesn’t bode well as they face one of the premier form teams of the competition.

They’re 15-point outsiders at home to Port Adelaide, but despite their poor recent form cannot be ruled out considering their 4-5 record as underdogs in 2024. 

Demons games this season have been some of the lowest scoring of the year, with their matches in 2024 averaging just 157 points per game - the second-lowest of any club and more than 10 points under the total points mark set by the money men.

Worse still, they’re averaging just 66 points when losing this season, so could well struggle to put up a significant score against the competition’s sixth-best defence.

On that basis, we’re confident that there will be fewer than 168.5 points scored.

Mitch Georgiades has been in wonderfully consistent form up front for Port Adelaide, recording 3+ goals in six of his last seven outings, and is a well- deserved favourite in the goalscorer markets. 

But in line with anticipation of a low-scoring match, we’ll take the safer option for him to kick two or more on this occasion. 

Best Bet: Under 168.5 Total Points - 1.9 With PlayUp

Player Prop: Mitch Georgiades To Kick 2+ Goals - 1.47 With Bet365

Carlton Vs Hawthorn, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)

Rated as the closest game of Round 22 by the bookies, Carlton and Hawthorn are ‘flip of the coin’ odds despite Hawthorn having the superior formline of recently defeating Collingwood and Fremantle, whilst Carlton’s only victory in their last five games was a struggle against lowly North Melbourne.

In fact, the Blues failed to cover the pre-game line in each of their last five matches, which if it continues would have them losing the game and even out of the eight if our prediction of Essendon winning also goes to plan.

What we are looking at this weekend is the ‘wire to wire’ market, in which you can back one team to be leading at the end of each quarter or for ‘any other result’, which includes draws and changes of lead. 

No team has been involved in more games to finish with ‘any other result’ than Carlton (13) this season, with recent weeks seeing them lead at half-time in losses to Port Adelaide and GWS as well as at quarter-time when falling to the Bulldogs. 

During that same period, Hawthorn were behind at 3QT before defeating Fremantle, trailing at quarter-time on the way to a win over Adelaide, whilst in the last round they blew a 15-point quarter-time lead against GWS.

Don’t be surprised to see a couple of changes of leads in this particular matchup, especially if it is as close as AFL betting apps are anticipating.

Sam Walsh put in perhaps his best shift of the season last weekend, taking 10 marks against Collingwood whilst also recording his highest possession count in six rounds.

Whilst he is a warm favourite in the 30+ disposal market with some Australian bookmakers, he was level with Patrick Cripps on Ladbrokes at 1.94 despite notching up 30+ possessions in 56% of matches in 2024, compared with just 17% for Cripps.

Best Bet: Wire To Wire 'Any Other Result' - 1.9 With Unibet

Player Prop: Sam Walsh 30+ Disposals - 1.94 With Ladbrokes