AFL Betting Tips Round 12: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
AFL Round 11 Predictions:
- Western Bulldogs To Win - 1.8 With Unibet
- Hawthorn-Adelaide under 166.5 points - 1.9 With PlayUp
- Melbourne-Fremantle under 150 points - 1.9 With BlueBet
Round 11 of the 2024 AFL season was an especially rewarding one for loyal followers of our weekly AFL betting blog, with five out of six correct picks returning a profit of greater than 50%!
The top three sides of the competition - Sydney, Essendon and Port Adelaide - all extended their impressive winning streaks in the last round, with the first two opening up a space on the rest of the league as a result.
Whilst the Power will look to provisionally leap into second place when they host Carlton for the Thursday night game, we’ll be looking a little further ahead and gazing over all of the markets offered by our favourite AFL betting sites to hopefully find another three successful pairs of bets.
It seemed like they just passed over us a couple of weeks ago, but AFL fans are now about to be subjected to another four weeks of condensed rounds as the 18 clubs enjoy a second bye in what is the longest season in history.
But despite that, there won’t be any shortage of wagering opportunities across the hundreds of options that Australian betting apps are pricing up for their customers each week. So let’s go again!
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs, Friday, 7:40pm (AEST)
One club are eight games unbeaten (W6 D2) and the other have lost the majority of their last eight (W3 L5).
It’s not quite that simple, for the Western Bulldogs have a 4-3 record as favourites this year and could have knocked over ladder leaders Sydney last weekend with some more accurate goalkicking.
Collingwood continued to sharpen up their defence throughout the season as they rose up into the eight, conceding fewer than 80 points in four straight games.
They may have just met the league’s fourth-best attacking unit at the right time and at the right place, having won four of their last five games over the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium.
But their enormous casualty ward cannot be overlooked.
Star Mason Cox joined Jordan de Goey, Brody Mihocek and Joe Richards on a list that, at the time of writing, had no fewer than 15 players on it, including eight members of the 22 that won the Grand Final last year.
That’s why AFL betting apps have graded the Bulldogs, who probably should have added Sydney to their scalps for 2024 alongside GWS, as narrow favourites.
Adam Treloar is often a popular pick for same game multis, and for the Dogs midfielder to rack up 30+ disposals for the ninth time this year, the price you’ll get on Ladbrokes is far greater than the average price, especially given how often he clears that mark.
Best Bet: Western Bulldogs To Win - 1.8 With Unibet
Player Prop: Adam Treloar 30+ disposals - 1.72 With Ladbrokes
Hawthorn v Adelaide, Saturday, 7:40pm (AEST)
Potential showers on late Saturday afternoon at the MCG only add to our confidence of this match between the Hawks and the Crows finishing ‘under’ the 166.5 point mark offered by PlayUp and similar websites.
Both teams are in the bottom six of the 18 when it comes to total points per match (162.4 and 157.6 respectively) in 2024, with the Crows scoring more than 90 points only three times this year, two of which were against the Eagles and Kangaroos.
Adelaide are on a nine-game losing streak at the MCG, but having already beaten Carlton and Port Adelaide in recent weeks as well as drawing with Brisbane, it’s hard to predict what they’re going to dish up this week against another team on the rise.
That’s why we’re instead looking at a total points handicap that five of the last seven H2Hs fell well short of, especially as the Hawks have conceded more than 80 points just twice from six matches since ending their long losing streak to start 2024.
Again, it’s Ladbrokes who are well clear of the competition when it comes to a disposal play involving Hawthorn’s James Worpel, who averages 21 per game at the MCG and has a 66% strike rate this season when it comes to reaching the 20-touch mark.
Best Bet: Under 166.5 points - 1.9 With PlayUp
Player Prop: James Worpel 20+ disposals - 1.68 With Ladbrokes
Melbourne v Fremantle, Sunday, 1:00pm (AEST)
The iconic annual Alice Springs game is back for another season which, were it not for Covid disruptions in 2021, would have been held for an 11th consecutive time this year.
The Demons have a middling 4-5 record in the desert town and are widely expected to level that ledger 5-5 against the ninth-placed Fremantle Dockers, who are visiting for the first time for Premiership points, but this game has become renowned in recent years for its very low scoring.
That is reflected as much in the total points mark of just 150.5 set by bookmakers such as BlueBet, but there are other factors which point towards this also being another solid ‘unders’ play.
Not only have the three games in Alice Springs this decade averaged just 115 points, but similarly to the previous match we previewed, Melbourne and Fremantle are 16th and 18th in the competition this season when it comes to total points.
That’s because they have the third and second-best defences respectively, whilst their averages of 82 and 76 points scored per game have kept the totals remarkably low.
Of course, it wouldn’t make sense to look to the goalscorer markets when expecting a low-scoring affair, but Dees fans may distinctly remember two outstanding performances from Christian Petracca when he notched up 34 and 30 disposals in his last two Traeger Park outings.
He’s averaging 24 per game this season, hitting 25+ on 45% of occasions, but if his venue form can give him a small boost above that average, 2.15 looks an excellent price.
Best Bet: Under 150 points - 1.9 With BlueBet
Player Prop: Christian Petracca 25+ disposals - 2.15 With Bet365
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