AFL Betting Tips Round 12: Top Picks And Betting Trends To Watch
AFL Round 12 Predictions:
- Melbourne By 1-39 points - 2.15 With Bluebet
- Port Adelaide By 1-39 points - 2.4 With PlayUp
- Gold Coast-Port Adelaide Under 160.5 total points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
- GWS-Richmond Wire to Wire Any Other Result - 1.96 With Unibet
The first of four consecutive split rounds will see some scattered action and fewer overlaps over the course of June as each club takes a well-earned break.
Fremantle, Sydney, St Kilda and Brisbane have Round 12, which offers some challengers an opportunity to inch closer or even break into the top four.
Melbourne will be hoping to shut them all out immediately, and we’re expecting them to be on their way back to some better form.
After we once again scoured our favourite AFL markets on the best betting sites for all seven games, here are our four best tips for this week - as well as some additional picks that may be of supplementary interest. Good punting!
Melbourne Demons v Carlton Blues, Friday, 7:50pm (AEST)
The fourth-placed Melbourne Demons (W7 L4) lost some progress with back-to-back defeats against the almost unbeatable Port Adelaide and rising force Fremantle, but are expected by AFL betting sites to return to the winner’s circle against hapless Carlton Blues (W4 D1 L6).
Melbourne have enjoyed seven straight victories over the Blues since 2016 and they are still boasting one of the league’s best win rates as favourites (64%) this year after their recent stumble, so they aren’t expected to repeat the three consecutive losses they suffered at this very same time last year.
In addition to falling short of the main pre-match line in all but one of their last eight games, Carlton are still yet to pick up a win against a current top-eight side other than when Geelong opened their season with an awful three losses in-a-row in March.
The Blues are certainly not the sum of all of their parts at the moment, but it’s well worth noting that Carlton amassed more than 20 scoring shots in each of their last two losses only to be let down by dreadful kicking accuracy.
That profligacy won’t last forever, and any improvement in that should see a loss of less than 40 points as a worst-case scenario.
Elsewhere, taking a look at the markets on Australian betting sites we noticed a comparatively generous price for Bayley Fritsch to boot 3+ goals, as he has done four times this year.
Tip: Melbourne By 1-39 Points - 2.15 With Bluebet
Value Play: Bayley Fritsch 3+ goals - 2.75 With Ladbrokes
Port Adelaide Power v Hawthorn Hawks, Saturday, 1:45pm (AEST)
It comes as little surprise that this has been graded by PlayUp as one of the most lopsided of the round, considering Port Adelaide Power (W9 L2) propelled themselves to second place with eight consecutive wins.
The Hawthorn Hawks (W3 L8), for their part, still have plenty to prove after a breakthrough triumph last week.
It’s the first time these sides will meet since the Hawks won by an enormous 64 points (at the starting price of 3.85) in Adelaide early last year, though the two teams have gone in completely opposite directions since then.
Two-thirds of Port Adelaide’s wins this season have fallen into the 1-39 point bracket, and as they return to the Adelaide Oval against a team that have covered the pre-match line in consecutive weeks.
Meanwhile, Port themselves registered scores of just 80 and 77 points in their last two wins, it’s hard to make a case for a big margin for the favourites.
For those Bet365 punters who enjoy playing the percentages, getting a price of better than even money for Jai Newcombe to hit the scoresheet - as he has done in four of his last five games - appeals.
Darcy Byrne-Jones, meanwhile, has first quarter goals to his name in three matches this season.
Tip: Port Adelaide By 1-39 Points - 2.4 With PlayUp
Value Play: Jai Newcombe To Kick A Goal - 2.05 With Bet365
Value Play: Darcy Byrne-Jones First Goalscorer - 15.0 With PlayUp
Gold Coast Suns v Adelaide Crows, Saturday, 7:30pm (AEST)
We saw one of the Gold Coast Suns’ (W5 L6) better performances last week when they collected a third consecutive win at Darwin’s TIO Stadium.
The team stayed in the Top End throughout the week leading into their second NT sojourn, treating locals to an open training session ahead of this vital fixture.
They could draw level with top-eight club Adelaide Crows (W6 L5) on points if successful, though their five-week period of alternating between victory and defeat continues to hold them back from a finals push.
BAILEY. HUMPHREY.
— 7AFL (@7AFL) May 27, 2023
What a goal from the 18-year-old ⭐#AFLSunsDogs pic.twitter.com/f8mMcPraI0
Last week’s win (84-77) was their first triumph of this season to see the total points exceed 160, and with the average total score in Darwin this decade less than 143 points (and the Crows not clearing a score of 80+ in any of their last three games outside of South Australia), it could be another modest affair as the Ladbrokes points total mark shows.
He’s not being quoted at a price that can be called ‘value’, but those first goalscorer punters wanting to play around Taylor Walker will be interested to know that Izak Rankine has kicked Adelaide’s first goal three times in 2023 (and the first of a match twice).
Tip: Under 160.5 Total Points - 1.9 With Ladbrokes
Value Play: Izak Rankine First Goalscorer - 10.0 With PlayUp
GWS Giants v Richmond Tigers, Sunday, 1:10pm (AEST)
The Unibet markets are expecting this to be a tight affair and we too are finding this one tough to pick, so we’re going to play around the head-to-head and line markets and back it to be a thriller on two fronts.
The GWS Giants (W4 L7) have seen the winning side lead at the end of each quarter in an joint-low four of their seven games in 2023.
That has contributed a lot to that bizarre outlier by trailing at the quarter-time break in three of their four wins, but failing to convert four of their five quarter-time leads into wins.
Back-to-back victories have eluded them all year, while they have covered the pre-match line just four times in 2023, so it’s hard to take them on trust against a Richmond Tigers (W3 D1 L7) outfit that should be fired up after suffering two narrow losses and seeing long-time coach Damien Hardwick exit suddenly.
In fact, the Tigers have now suffered four losses by less than 16 points to go with their Round 1 draw with Carlton, keeping their percentage close to 100 which will serve them well if they can turn things around soon.
The designated home team of the day has won each of the last 14 matches between these sides, which plays ever so slightly into the Giants’ favour - but there’s little from either team that suggests they’ll be able to overpower the other.
The prospect of a tight margin and perhaps even a few lead changes along the way appeals.
Tip: Wire To Wire Any Other Result - 1.96 With Unibet
Value Play: Either Team By Under 15.5 Points - 2.65 With PlayUp
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