AFL Betting Tips Round 6: Our Best Bets For This Week’s Games

Both the Fremantle Dockers (W2 L3) and the Western Bulldogs (W2 L3) have had a mixed start to their seasons so far and are themselves seeking to break even when opening Round 6 at Perth’s Optus Stadium.

The home side have won three of their last four matches as well as sustaining a cruel one-point loss to North Melbourne in Round 2. 

That included a clutch elimination final victory last year in which they overcame a 41-point second quarter deficit courtesy of goals in each of the following three quarters from Michael Walters and two in one from now-Bulldog Rory Lobb. 

Fremantle have continued to start poorly, losing the opening quarter of each of their last nine matches since meeting the Bulldogs in Melbourne last August.

The Bulldogs have now lost four of their last five interstate games after falling to Port Adelaide in their Gather Round contest and have not fared much better at Optus Stadium across its brief history.

They’ve lost six of their nine matches against all opposition including the 2021 Grand Final. But having already collected two scalps as outsiders (Richmond and Brisbane) this year, Luke Beveridge’s side certainly cannot be ruled out. 

Given the inconsistency of both sides and the weakness within their forward 50s, it could instead be the total points market that is worth attacking on AFL betting sites. 

The Bulldogs and the Dockers are the third and ninth lowest scoring sides respectively this season, with the Dogs’ accuracy of just 45% in front of goal letting them down.

But both sides have also done enough defensively to concede fewer points than clubs such as Adelaide, Port Adelaide and Brisbane, so a low-scoring encounter would not surprise.

Tip: Under 165.5 Total Points - 1.9 With BlueBet

Tip: Western Bulldogs To Win 1st Quarter - 1.95 With Ladbrokes

COVID-19 had not been discovered the last time the GWS Giants (W2 L3) won in the national capital and Unibet are expecting them to have another tough time after they had to grind and slog to get the better of last-placed Hawthorn in Adelaide last week. 

The race to offer Harry Himmelberg his next contract is on after two match-winning feats in the dying moments to take the four points and keep the eight within touching distance.

The end result doesn’t excuse the fact they struggled against an opposition with a percentage of just 60 going into that fixture and have now failed to cover the pre-match line four out of five times this year. 

Australia betting sites are anticipating the Giants will lose an eighth consecutive game at Canberra’s Manuka Oval after four failed attempts in 2022, while perhaps most alarmingly they have not cleared 70+ points in any of those seven outings. 

Curiously, the quarter-time leader has gone on to lose every GWS game in 2023, as well as in four of five involving the Brisbane Lions (W3 L2)! 

Starting well appears to be a curse in that aspect, and don’t forget that Brisbane came close to losing at home to Melbourne in the infamous ‘Gabba blackout’ match after a six goal to two opening term. 

The Lions were sluggish in attack against North Melbourne but eventually found their rhythm and were able to dominate possession to record five or more goals in every quarter. 

There’s no value to be had in the head-to-head (H2H) markets with Brisbane understandably skinny, though the -21.5 line could be worth attacking if you believe the Giants are not any closer to the Lions than they were when losing to them by 40 points. 

Based on a 10-game sample size, it instead appears smarter to back that neither side will sustain a lead across the end of all four quarters. 

For those seeking some extra value, Toby Greene was the first goalscorer of the corresponding H2H in Canberra last year and he has already booted the Giants’ opener twice in 2023!

Tip: ‘Wire To Wire’: Any Other Result - 2.12 With Unibet

Value Play: Toby Greene First Goalscorer - 10.0 With Bet365

Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne, Sunday, 4:40pm (AEST)

Two sides expected to struggle throughout 2023 are looking for a much-needed win at the newly renamed Heritage Bank Stadium, where the Gold Coast Suns (W1 L4) secured their only win of the season against an under-par Geelong outfit. 

They coughed up a 23-point half-time lead against Fremantle at Norwood Oval last week to run out narrow losers, the fourth game involving the Suns this year that saw both sides lead at the end of at least one quarter each.

Head coach Stuart Dew has received the support of his bosses despite conceding he is “under pressure” ahead of some winnable games against upcoming opponents North Melbourne (W2 L3) as well as Richmond and West Coast that could see him out the door if things don’t go their way. 

Fortunately, as far as this match is concerned, they’re taking on an opposition travelling north with 10 consecutive Queensland defeats to their name.

Despite 13 goals from outside Coleman Medal contender Nick Larkey, the Roos are yet to clear 90 points in a game this year and lost their way defensively in losses to Carlton and Brisbane after three straight games that were decided by a margin of under 20 points. 

That consequently saw them concede 23 second half goals across those last two games, but there’s a great opportunity to wrest that back in their favour against a side averaging just five second half goals per game in 2023.

In this fixture between two of the five lowest scoring clubs, it makes sense to want to lean towards the ‘unders’ with PlayUp. 

Further in its favour is that the last five meetings between these sides didn’t exceed the main total points handicap.

Tip: Under 164.5 Points - 1.9 With PlayUp

Value Play: Jack Lukosius First Goalscorer - 12.0 With Unibet