Ireland vs New Zealand Tips: Rugby World Cup Predictions, Betting Preview & Best Odds

When: Saturday, October 14, 8:00pm

Where: Stade de France, Paris 

Watch: Sky Sports 1, Virgin Media One

Best Odds: New Zealand 2.38, Ireland 1.73

Perhaps the most highly anticipated of the four 2023 Rugby World Cup (RWC) quarter-finals takes place on Sunday morning and betting sites have odds at the ready.

The fans will light up the Stade de France as a strong travelling Irish contingent once again converges on the capital for this gigantic clash.

France was formally the host nation the last and only time that New Zealand were bundled out at the quarter-finals of a RWC, though that particular clash took place at the Millenium Stadium in Cardiff.

There’s plenty for the All Blacks to be inspired by in what they hope will be the first of three games in three weeks.

Since their opening round loss to France, some of their personnel have been drawing parallels with the 2019 Cup in which South Africa became the first nation to win the Cup from a week one loss, whilst in that very tournament New Zealand thrashed Ireland in the quarter-finals to the tune of a 46-14 score line in Tokyo.

Add to that the pain of their maiden home series loss to Ireland last year, which back Jordie Barrett admitted was still “hurting” him and some of his colleagues, and there should be no shortage of motivation for enacting revenge on that basis.

The Numbers That Matter

• Ireland has a 25-2 record since the start of 2021 when scoring the first try
• Four of the last five H2Hs produced at least 49 total points
• Ireland covered the pre-match handicap in two-thirds of matches this year
• The second half was the highest scoring half in seven of New Zealand’s last nine games
• James Lowe has scored a try in six separate internationals this year, the second most amongst all Tier 1 nations

New Zealand Team News

15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leicester Fainga'anuku, 10 Richie Mo'unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot

In: Ethan de Groot, Brodie Retallick, Scott Barrett, Ardie Savea, Aaron Smith, Rieko Ioane, Beauden Barrett

Out: Ofa Tu'ungafasi, Sam Whitelock, Tupou Vaa'i, Luke Jacobson, Cam Roigard, Anton Lienert-Brown, Damian McKenzie

It’s all guns blazing from the All Blacks with a couple of notable exceptions that got tongues wagging during the week.

Star winger Mark Telea, who was slated to return to the starting lineup after being rested entirely from the matchday 23 against Uruguay last week, was stood down for what head coach Ian Foster described as a “minor” disciplinary breach.

Reports later emerged that Telea may have broken curfew, but Foster warded off any speculation of further trouble by affirming publicly “I still love him” and that the team has already moved on from the incident.

It means that Leicester Fainga'anuku, who thoroughly deserves a knockout start in his own right after a hat-trick against the Uruguayans, has unexpectedly retained his place on the left wing, whilst Rieko Ioane continues his new life as an explosive centre by replacing Anton Lienert-Brown. 

Ireland Team News

15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Johnny Sexton (c), 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Iain Henderson, 4 Tadhg Beirne, 3 Tadhg Furlong, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter - (No changes to the starting XV)

For the first time in this tournament, Ireland boss Andy Farrell has picked an unchanged team to go into battle. 

The only two changes are on the bench, one of which was forced with second rower James Ryan aggravating a hand injury off the bench against Scotland last week.

The most encouraging news to come out of that selection announcement is that wingers James Lowe and Mack Hansen both survived injury scares, which of course is not great news for the All Blacks!

Ten members of the aforementioned starting XV were a part of the side that were dominated by New Zealand in the 2019 RWC quarter-finals, with nine of them in the run-on team this time around.

New Zealand v Ireland: What Could Happen This Weekend?

Farrell declared his Irish players had negotiated an “inferiority complex” that plagued them in recent years and nothing could confirm that more than a maiden semi-finals appearance at a Rugby World Cup after seven quarter-finals losses.

They’ll have the upper hand psychologically having swept aside all before them since a series opening loss in New Zealand last year, which they overcame with successive wins on the way to a record-breaking winning streak for the national team.

New Zealand’s so-called ‘decline’ in world rugby is perhaps a bit overstated, but they have a couple more vulnerabilities than their opponents, who reasserted their defensive prowess when keeping defending champions South Africa to just eight points during the pool stage.

They’ll have the crowd on their side in Paris and the morale and belief that Farrell has evidently nurtured in the group has them looking the goods to make some history this weekend.

As we mentioned earlier, James Lowe is finding the tryline with ridiculous frequency this year and he was also on the scoresheet when these teams met in an autumn 2021 meeting in Dublin, which Ireland prevailed in 29-20.

He’s the most favoured player to score a try with rugby betting sites, but it is with very good reason.

Best Bet: Ireland -2.5 points - 1.91 @ Bet365

Player Prop: James Lowe to score a try - 3.00 @ Ladbrokes