All Blacks Next Game: Latest Odds & Analysis on New Zealand vs Argentina

When: Saturday, October 21, 8:00am NZT

Where: Stade de France, Paris 

Watch: Sky Sport 1, Sky Sport Now

Best Odds: New Zealand 1.10, Argentina 11.0

Have New Zealand secured a free passage through to the 2023 Rugby World Cup? 

That’s what some supporters, pundits and betting sites alike are suggesting after they completed one of their hardest fought victories in years, sustaining a late barrage of desperate Irish bodies to register a second consecutive World Cup quarter-final win over Ireland.

Most impressive of all, they did it with 14 men on the pitch for a total of 20 minutes thanks to yellow cards in each half, even managing to ‘win’ the 10-minute period without Aaron Smith after half-time thanks to some ill discipline from the Irish themselves.

Bookies now consider the Rugby World Cup a two-horse race from here, and the odds suggest the All Blacks will have a much easier time of it this weekend in Paris.

The Numbers That Matter

• New Zealand has scored the first try in 17 of their last 19 matches
• The first half was the highest scoring half in just four of Argentina’s last 16 games
• Will Jordan scored a try in 11 of his last 15 games for New Zealand
• Emiliano Boffelli is the only starter to score tries for Argentina in two RWC 2023 matches

New Zealand Team News

15 Beauden Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leicester Fainga'anuku, 10 Richie Mo'unga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Ardie Savea, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Shannon Frizell, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot

In: Mark Telea, Sam Whitelock

Out: Leicester Fainga'anuku, Brodie Retallick

All Blacks record cap holder Sam Whitelock will add to his 151 Tests when he comes back into the starting XV after head coach Ian Foster made a brave decision during the tournament to bench him in favour of Dane Coles.

Coles has now found himself out of the matchday squad, with last week’s starting number four Brodie Retallick pushed back to the bench ahead of Coles.

The other change to be made to the run-on side for New Zealand this week was known well in advance.

Star winger Mark Telea was dropped from last week’s quarter-final win over Ireland for reportedly breaching a team curfew and was flagged to miss that one game only.

He has therefore returned to replace Leicester Fainga'anuku, who hasn’t even been afforded a spot on the bench for some neat performances at this World Cup.

Argentina Team News

15 Juan Cruz Mallía, 14 Emiliano Boffelli, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Mateo Carreras, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Juan Martín González, 5 Tomás Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Francisco Gómez Kodela, 2 Julián Montoya (c), 1 Thomas Gallo

In: Gonzalo Bertranou

Out: Tomás Cubelli

Argentina’s only change is in the scrum half role, where Dragons player Gonzalo Bertranou deposed Tomás Cubelli.

Bertranou made three starts in the pool stages but was replaced for last week’s quarter-final victory over Wales, only to return this week.

Perhaps it could be because Bertranou was Argentina’s starting number nine in their 2022 victory over the All Blacks, whilst he came off the bench as Cubelli’s understudy in the 2020 win in Sydney, which accounts for Argentina’s only two head-to-head wins.

New Zealand v Argentina: What Could Happen This Weekend?

Argentina’s preparations for this match suffered a significant setback last weekend when it emerged that their team hotel in Paris was not ready for them to arrive on Sunday as head coach Michael Cheika had planned.

Cheika admitted the last minute change of schedule has him worried as he was not able to begin his planned preparation as soon as hoped, whilst the All Blacks were already in Paris for a week having defeated Ireland in the capital.

Argentina will need everything to go perfect for an historic victory, including the lead-up to the match, which has already gone a little off course as suggested by Cheika.

Nothing would surprise us when it comes to the Pumas - Cheika himself told reporters that he “can't say that one game (referring to their last win over the All Blacks) means we can do it as there are a lot of games where we haven't.”

Their stamina and determination was on display last week when they overran Wales despite not scoring a try within the opening hour, so they may be able to force New Zealand to work hard from start to finish.

If they can’t, the All Blacks will be in a ruthless mood and prepared to blow Argentina out of the water to send a statement to their next challenger. 

Two-thirds of tries conceded by Argentina this year have been after the half-time whistle, so whether they’re at their best, worst or anywhere in between, we’re anticipating the bulk of points will come in the second half.

Whilst Will Jordan is the most obvious pick when it comes to selecting a try scorer for this match, there’s no value from rugby betting sites this time around.

Rieko Ioane’s only try of the tournament came off the bench against Namibia, but there’s something about this opposition that he loves dearly: he has crossed the line in three of his last five games against Argentina when wearing the number 13 jersey.

Best Bet: Second half to be the highest scoring half - 1.72 @ Bet365

Player Prop: Rieko Ioane to score a try - 2.6 @ BetVictor