Donald Trump Returns To Favourite In 2024 US Election Odds

Betting sites have returned their odds on Donald Trump winning the next US election back to what they were before the FBI’s Mar-a-Lago raid, with confidence still high that the former president will win back the White House in 2024.

The raid on Trump’s Florida home to extract more than 100 files of classified documents caused betting markets to tumble in early August.

Trump went from the sole favourite in the US election odds to level with his Republican rival Ron DeSantis.

There was speculation the businessman could be barred from running again, and there remains a drawn-out court process over the papers. 

What’s more, a New York lawsuit is suing the Trump family organisation over allegations they over-inflated his property portfolio.

Still, despite a stream of legal battles looming for Trump, UK bookmakers seem unable to significantly shift their odds away from the former president.

Trump 2024 Odds

Indeed, political betting sites have cut their odds on Trump winning the next election back to 4.0 favourite, with DeSantis now out at 5.0.

The big reason for this isn’t just the expectation that Trump will get the GOP ticket come 2024. It also has a lot to do with bettor habits. 

Right now, 50.5% of all wagers on who will be the next US president have gone with Trump. The weight of the bets has deflated his price so much that bookies now have him as the frontrunner.

Trump even remains ahead of Joe Biden, who is 5.5 with bet365 to win re-election in two years’ time. That’s despite the fact Biden leads Trump in most polls.

What’s more, Democratic VP Kamala Harris is out at 13.0 and California governor Gavin Newsom is 15.0. 

They would both need Biden to agree to step down after his first four years as US president if they are to stand a chance of running against Trump in 2024.

Are The Trump Odds Correct?

But do the 2024 US Presidential election odds truly reflect Trump’s chances of winning back the Oval Office? Well, in a sense yes. 

The businessman has a stranglehold on the Republican party and many of his picks are winning primary battles in preparation for the US midterms. 

The more Trump-endorsed Representatives and Senators who are voted into Congress this November, the stronger his hold on the party.

Trump hopes that with the GOP machine behind him, his campaign for re-election will crush anything the Democrats can throw at him.

But the odds aren’t yet taking into account the controversies that lie before Trump. The Mar-a-Lago raid was just the start of a long-drawn out process with the FBI, which is concerned about the number of classified national secrets stashed in Trump’s resort.

An unbiased ‘special master’ has been appointed to oversee the case, so sensitive as it is. 

Trump argues the investigation is politically motivated and says the FBI planted the documents. He hasn’t provided any proof of these allegations.

Meanwhile, in his New York civil case, the businessman invoked his Fifth Amendment rights when asked 440 questions about allegations he misrepresented his family’s wealth by inflating his net assets by billions, and thus cheat lenders with false financial statements.

By refusing to answer the questions - which is his right - experts believe Trump has made it harder for him to argue his case in the civil trial.

On top of this, the January 6th hearings could provide further suggestions that Trump was culpable in triggering the riot that led to the attack on the Capitol.

So, will one of these avenues bar him from running for president? Perhaps. But Australian betting sites still have him on course to recapture power in 2024.