Donald Trump 2024 Odds: Trump Leads Harris On Eve Of Election Day

UK betting sites have sustained a slight wobble in their odds for Donald Trump on the eve of the 2024 US presidential election – but they still believe the Republican is favourite to beat Kamala Harris on Tuesday.

Trump’s odds had been coming in for weeks and he’d set a new low price of 1/2 to win the election by late October.

Those odds, which carried a 66.6% probability, reflected the growing belief that Trump would land the majority of America’s seven swing states and tip over 270 electoral college votes.

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Trump is not expected to win the popular vote but that doesn’t mean he can’t win the election. If he can sweep the Sun Belt swing states and grab one of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin from Harris then that will be enough.

The former president has campaigned hard in recent weeks and gathered the backing of billionaires, including X owner Elon Musk. His MAGA fan base has grown bigger than it was in his first term as president, and he is less than a percentage point behind Harris in the polls.

Around 47% of America will vote for both Trump and Harris on Tuesday. The two candidates are scrapping over a handful of undecided voters in seven swing states.

And the bookies, who previously thought Trump was a shoo-in to win, now reckon the race is tight again.

Donald Trump Odds

Trump is still favourite to win the 2024 US election but his odds are going against the trend that we’ve seen for the past month. He is now 8/11 to win with Ladbrokes, which carries a 57.9% probability. Harris, meanwhile, is at 6/5 (45.5%).

Now, the Trump campaign would look at those odds positively. However, the fact the prices have changed so much over the past few days suggests many punters believed Harris was set too high.

Suddenly all the value was in backing her and bettors followed the value. The pair are now more evenly matched heading into election day on November 5.

What’s interesting to note, too, is that Trump’s share of the market here has fallen slightly over the past few days. 

Around 67% of bets were backing him to win last week. 

That’s dropped to 64%. It’s not a significant drop but the shift in betting preference towards Harris explains why the odds have also changed.

Will Trump Beat Harris?

Of course, the betting odds only give us a general reflection of what people think might happen on election night. 

They were closer than the polls in 2016 when they gave Trump a better chance of winning, but they still weren’t wholly accurate.

This year the odds suggest Trump is 12.4% more likely to win than Harris. That’s bigger than the polls, which actually give Harris a 0.9% lead over the Republican.

So why is Trump leading so much in the odds? 

Well, the first reason is betting value. Some punters won big when backing Trump in the 2016 election at odds of 9/1. 

While he’s nowhere near that price now, many still believe he’s got a good chance of beating Harris. Every bet for Trump drives his price down but bettors still think he’s worth the punt.

The second, and perhaps more pertinent reason, is the swing state polls. There are seven swing states, and Trump leads in four of them.

He holds one-point leads in North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada. This, coupled with his three-point lead in Arizona, puts him on the cusp of 270 electoral college votes.

Pennsylvania is tied, while Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin by a single point. All Trump needs is to win the four Sun Belt states and one of the other three to tip over 270.

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Bettors believe he will. Trump is in a more favourable position across the swing states than Harris, and he doesn’t need to win the popular vote to land the presidency.

Punters are ignoring the national polls and focusing on the seven states instead. 

That’s why Trump is favourite to win on election day with betting apps despite a late surge from Harris.