2023/24 Premier League Finale: Who Will Score Record-Breaking Goal?
The Premier League draws to a close on Sunday with Manchester City and Arsenal battling it out for the title.
City are looking to become the first team to claim four successive titles in the history of English football, before and during the Premier League era.
If Arsenal finish top of the table, it will be their first title since their 2003/04 ‘Invincibles’ season.
City, with their two-point advantage, are overwhelming favourites on the best UK betting sites, while Arsenal are almost double digits to get their hands on the trophy.
Besides the title race going down to the final game, Sunday could and should be a record-breaking day for the league.
With 10 matches left to play, a total of 1,209 goals have been scored, just 13 shy of the all-time record for goals scored in a Premier League season.
| 1992/93 | 1,222 goals | 462 games | 2.6 goals per game |
| 2023/24 | 1,209 goals | 370 games | 3.3 goals per game |
The record of 1,222 goals scored stands from the inaugural season which saw 22 teams play a total of 462 matches.
If the record, that has stood for three decades, falls this season, it shows how explosive the game has become, considering there are 380 matches in a campaign.
Given that the fewest goals scored in the final round of Premier League games remains 21 (to close the 1997/98 season), it’s going to take something extraordinary to deny a new total goals record.
With the record within shooting distance, we’ve looked at some betting markets.
Who Will Score The Record-Breaking 1,223rd Goal?
The smart money would be a player chasing this season’s Golden Boot, which Erling Haaland seems to have wrapped up with 27 goals.
His nearest rival is Cole Palmer, but the chances of him scoring five times in Chelsea’s season finale at home to Bournemouth to draw level with the Norwegian are slim.
As Newcastle’s trip to Manchester United on Wednesday night showed, anyone can score at any time, as defender Lewis Hall netted the 1,209th goal of the season in the 92nd minute.
Haaland has been breaking records ever since arriving at Manchester City in the summer of 2022, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone that he is favourite to score the 1,223rd goal.
The 23-year-old is 2/5 to be anytime scorer against West Ham, 11/5 to be first scorer, 8/5 to score two or more and 11/2 to end the season with a third league hat-trick of the season.
Player To Score Premier League Record-Breaking Goal Odds
| Player | Odds | Probability |
| Erling Haaland (Manchester City) | 6/4 | 40% |
| An Own Goal | 7/4 | 36.4% |
| Cole Palmer (Chelsea) | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Mohamed Salah (Liverpool) | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Phil Foden (Manchester City) | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Dominic Solanke (Bournemouth) | 3/1 | 25% |
| Ollie Watkins (Aston Villa) | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta (Crystal Palace) | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Kai Havertz (Arsenal) | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Alexander Isak (Newcastle United) | 5/1 | 16.7% |
| Son Heung-Min (Tottenham Hotspur) | 8/1 | 11.1% |
| Niclas Jackson (Chelsea) | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Haaland’s team-mate Phil Foden is enjoying his best season in front of goal. Can he add to his 17 league goals this campaign and claim the Player of the Year award? Foden is 11/10 on betting apps to be an anytime scorer at the Etihad.
Kai Havertz's goals have helped Arsenal take the title race to the final day of the season. The German, who is 9/2 to be first goalscorer on Sunday, started the season with one goal in 12 league games, but he added 11 goals in his last 24 matches.
Mohamed Salah's future remains in doubt, with a summer exit expected like his manager Jurgen Klopp, who announced he’d be leaving Liverpool at the end of the season. Could Salah, who is 10/3 to open the scoring, net the milestone goal?
Or how about Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta? Palace end their season at home to Aston Villa and the Frenchman is looking to score at Selhurst Park for the seventh successive game. He's 5/1 to be first scorer.
What about the milestone goal being an own goal? While the aforementioned players are all playing in just one game, an own goal can be scored in numerous games.
Which Match Might The Record-Breaking Goal Be Scored In?
Narrowing the goalscorer down to one player is tricky, especially as there will be 220 players starting this weekend.
So, picking which game the 1,223rd goal will be scored in should be a bit easier. But which of the 10 games will the memorable moment come from?
We’ve analysed the 370 Premier League games played so far, to spot possible trends that might lead us to which game could see the most goals scored.
The game that jumps out to us is Tottenham’s trip to Sheffield United. The hosts have already been relegated and have nothing to play for, which could lead to goals at both ends of the pitch.
Tottenham need a point to be guaranteed a place in next season’s Europa League, but a defeat, coupled with a Chelsea win at home to Bournemouth, will see Spurs drop into the Conference League.
Tottenham’s away games average 3.57 goals per game this season, while league games at Bramall Lane average 3.68 goals. Over 3.5 total goals is available at 8/13 on football betting sites.
Fixture Record-Breaking Goal Will Be Scored In Odds
| Fixture | Odds | Probability |
| Sheffield United v Tottenham Hotspur | Evens | 50% |
| Brentford v Newcastle United | 9/5 | 35.7% |
| Manchester City v West Ham United | 2/1 | 33.3% |
| Arsenal v Everton | 9/4 | 30.8 |
| Chelsea v Bournemouth | 5/2 | 28.6% |
| Liverpool v Wolves | 11/4 | 26.7% |
| Brighton v Manchester United | 11/4 | 26.7% |
| Crystal Palace v Aston Villa | 3/1 | 25% |
| Luton Town v Fulham | 7/2 | 22.2% |
| Burnley v Nottingham Forest | 7/2 | 22.2% |
If that game doesn’t provide the record-breaking goal, how about Newcastle’s journey to Brentford?
Newcastle’s hopes of qualifying for European football next season hinge on Chelsea losing to Bournemouth and the Magpies beating the Bees.
The last two away games for Newcastle have seen exactly five goals scored, including their 3-2 loss at Manchester United on Wednesday night.
Or could Manchester City’s game against West Ham at the Etihad provide the record-breaking moment?
If all goes according to plan and City win, they will become the first team to be crowned champions of England four seasons in a row.
City’s league games at the Etihad have produced an average of 3.41 goals per game, while the Hammers’ away games average 3.51.
How Many Goals On The Final Day?
The final day of the season has a reputation of being one of the highest-scoring rounds of the season.
The majority of teams have nothing to play for, so players are not inclined to fly into tackles and risk picking up an injury that requires them to receive treatment in the summer.
In each of the last eight seasons, the final day has produced 31 goals or more. The 2022/23 season finale saw a record 39 goals scored and this was followed last season with 33.
Premier League Final Day Total Goals Odds
| Total Goals Scored | Odds | Probability |
| 34 goals or more on Premier League Final Day | 4/6 | 60% |
| 32 goals or fewer on Premier League Final Day | 6/4 | 40% |
| Exactly 33 goals scored on Premier League Final Day | 12/1 | 7.7% |
VAR is one reason why this season is on course to smash the record for goals scored, with increased injury time added on at the end of matches.
If the season average of 3.27 goals per game is maintained on Sunday, then that total of 33 should be repeated.
It will take something very special to beat the 39 goal-mark of two seasons ago, which remains the highest total since the league was reduced from 22 teams to 20 ahead of the 1995/96 campaign.
If you’re a fan of goalless draws, then the final day of the Premier League season is not for you.
In the last eight seasons, there has only been one 0-0 draw, and that was when Chelsea visited Leicester at the end of the 2018/19 season.
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