Finland Election Odds: Betting Tips Sanna Marin For Prime Minister

Betting sites expect Sanna Marin to remain prime minister of Finland after the 2023 Finnish election despite polls suggesting her Social Democratic party will fail to win the most seats.

Around four million voters will cast their ballots on Sunday, April 2 in a general election that currently feels too close to call.

Marin, prime minister since December 2019 when former SDP leader Antti Rinne resigned, has global popularity but is struggling to convert that into backing at home.

The PM currently leads a left-wing alliance in the Finnish parliament that has proved stable enough over the past three years to pass the majority of her policies. 

But issues around the economy, the cost of living, NATO membership and Russian aggression means the coalition at times has been tested.

Indeed, the polls suggest two right-wing parties are destined to claim more votes in April than the SDP.

And UK bookmakers are steadily beginning to take note of what could be a crucial election for the country.

Finland Election Odds

According to political betting sites, Marin remains the favourite to be prime minister once the election is over. 

However, her odds are widening. Bettors could secure a price of 4/9 on Marin winning back in late January. 

But those odds have already inflated to 8/15, bringing an implied probability of 65.2% that she will remain in her post.

Granted, having a two-in-three chance of remaining prime minister is still fairly good going for a Finnish political leader operating in a proportional representation parliamentary system. 

But the fact her chances of winning the election are reducing have caught the eye of punters.

Petteri Orpo, leader of the centre-right National Coalition, is the second favourite to be PM at 6/4 (40% probability) with William Hill.  

Orpo’s party currently lead in the polls by about six points, but the issue here is that the lead used to be much bigger.

Indeed, the National Coalition had commanded a 12-point poll lead this time last year and were way ahead of both the government and fellow right-wing entity the Finns Party (PS). 

Yet a spike in nationalism in Finland has helped PS and adversely affected Orpo’s chances of being PM.

Saying that, the bookmakers evidently don’t expect PS leader Riikka Purra to get anywhere near the top job. At 20/1, Purra looks destined to play deputy to Orpo if Finland votes in a right-wing alliance this spring.

Finnish Election Prediction

Right now, the election is too close to call. PS and the National Coalition are both polling better than the SDP, and combined would likely come close to the 100 seats needed to control parliament.

That would result in Orpo being appointed prime minister.

But the Social Democrats aren’t out of this race and will probably again rely on green and rural-focused parties to prop them up again. 

The Green League, Centre Party and Left Alliance all have a role in this election and will be vying to place their members in top jobs should Marin win again.

Marin is leading the betting odds even though her party is third in the polls. That’s proof of how important power sharing is in Finland and building relationships with other parties.

The fact betting apps have widened favourite Marin’s odds and brought Orpo’s price in from 2/1 to 6/4 shows there is still uncertainty over the incumbent prime minister. 

What’s more, 90% of all wagers on this market are backing Orpo.

We still have a fair few weeks remaining before campaigning kicks in - and only then may we see a truer reflection of where this election lies. 

How Finland Elections Work

Betting on Finland elections can be quite tricky because there’s no guarantee of knowing how the parliamentary split will fall. 

Proportional representation means there’s always going to be a good number of parties that are represented in the chamber - but predicting how they converge into alliances is difficult.

Generally, the economically liberal right-wing parties stick together, as do the social liberal left-wingers. 

But when populist parties enter the fray, it’s tough to know how much ground the “bigger” parties will cede in order to get into power.

The Finns Party has recently become this sticking point for the right wing. 

Much like other nations in the democratic world - the Conservatives in the UK and Republicans in the US, for example - the National Coalition has had to tread a fine line to keep the Finns on side, without plunging too far to the right.

The Finnish vote takes place on April 2, 2023, yet it may take many days for a government to be formed. 

Should the SDP collect enough support from other parties then Marin will remain in power. 

But the right-wing bloc will hope to collect more seats than last time, and could seek a kingmaker if they’re close to the threshold.