French Election Betting Odds: Macron Tipped To Win Over Le Pen
The best betting sites have placed Emmanuel Macron as the overwhelming favourite to win the French election this weekend – but a Marine Le Pen victory cannot yet be discounted.
Macron cruised into the second round of voting for the next French president with 27% of the first vote in early April. Le Pen’s 24% saw her squeeze past socialist Jean-Luc Mélenchon and into a one-on-one battle with the current president.
France heads to the polls on Sunday April 24 to decide whether to keep Macron or vote in the far-right candidate Le Pen, who has refused to step away from the national spotlight since losing the 2017 election battle.
Indeed, the French politics betting odds have been weighing up these two figures for years. It is Le Pen’s National Rally party that at one stage appeared primed to topple Macron, only for the president to claw back his popularity.
And, with just days remaining before the second vote, UK bookmakers believe the incumbent will win out here thanks to a rallying of support from other left-wing and centrist parties.
French Election Latest Odds
According to political betting sites, Macron now has a 95% chance of securing a second term as president. The En Marche leader has always been the favourite but in recent days his odds have crushed to as short as 1/20.
The reason for this is the swift U-turn in opinion polling against Le Pen since she secured safe passage into this weekend’s run-off vote.
The 53-year-old has her supporters but has faced heavy scrutiny since the start of this month. A recent live TV debate between the two candidates saw Le Pen perform well, but not well enough to flip voting intention. Le Pen knows her brief much better than she did in 2017 – but so does Macron.
A rallying against Le Pen’s far-right policies was always expected. The party leader hoped, however, to generate enough support outside of urban areas to topple Macron. But for many voters the status quo remains the “lesser evil” of the two options on the ballot paper.
Bet365 currently price the outsider at 10/1 to win this election, which offers an implied probability of 9.1%. At this stage of the contest that is a monumental gulf to overcome.
However, the polls still have this battle within 11 points. Macron is polling around 55% and Le Pen 44%. The usual margin for error is around four points, so it would take something big or totally unexpected for Le Pen to be voted in here.
Biggest Politics Betting Shocks
But could she do it? Le Pen has already overcome the first round of voting and actually increased her percentage from the same stage in 2017. And what will fuel hope of her supporters are other against-the-odds political victories over the past few years.
| Event | Odds | Implied Probability | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Corbyn to be elected Labour leader | 100/1 | 1% | Corbyn was initially added to the list of Labour leader candidates as a nominal far-left option, but ended up securing the leadership |
| Marine Le Pen to beat Emmanuel Macros? | 10/1 | 9.1% | Should Le Pen win on Sunday she would secure one of the most unlikely victories in politics betting history |
| Donald Trump beats Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US election | 9/1 | 10% | While some bookmakers gave Trump better odds than 9/1, the majority believed he had no chance against Clinton. Trump lost on total votes but won the presidency in the electoral college |
| Lib Dems win the 2020 North Shropshire by-election | 9/1 | 10% | When Owen Patterson quit as an MP over the Tory sleaze scandal, bookmakers gave the Conservatives an 80% chance of retaining a historic seat. But Lib Dem candidate Helen Morgan swept to by-election victory and exposed the UK public’s dissatisfaction with the Boris Johnson government |
| Scott Morrison wins the 2019 Australian election | 4/1 | 20% | Morrison had been in power only a year when the 2019 Australian election came along. He was trailing 12 points behind Labor’s Bill Shorten in the build-up to the vote, but enough “quiet Australians” voted for the Liberal/National Coalition to secure a slender majority |
| UK votes for Brexit | 3/1 | 25% | The general consensus is that the Brexit result was a major shock, but while pollsters got it wrong, bookmakers were wary of what could happen on election night. Britain voted to leave the EU in 2016 by a 52-48 majority. The bookies had been cutting their Leave odds for weeks, wary of what could happen. And they were smart to do so. |
Who Will Win The French Election?
Just a few days out from the vote and it appears as though Macron will win the 2022 French election. The incumbent’s current odds and polling figures suggest he will beat Le Pen – although perhaps not as comfortably as he did in 2017.
Macron has had to contend with a presidential campaign while also tackling the continent-wide crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It was Macron who tried to talk Russian president Vladimir Putin out of the war, and who now faces the almighty challenge of balancing support for Ukraine with keeping the lights on back home.
France, like Germany and many other European nations, relies on Russian oil and gas for its energy needs. The invasion has spiked prices across the country and Le Pen has jumped on the cost of living crisis as a focal point of her campaign.
Yet it appears as though Macron still has the backing of the French people, even while the country endures a cost of living squeeze. Indeed, the president arguably could have made further gains in the first round of voting, had he been campaigning as vociferously as he did in 2017.
But, like many other western leaders, his presence has barely been felt on the national stage due to the international crisis unfolding in Ukraine.
All this has now changed in the lead-up to the run-off vote. Macron is in full electioneering mode, fought off Le Pen with ease during their live TV debate, and it’s unlikely even Le Pen’s revamped support can stop him now.
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