Greece Election Betting: New Democracy Tipped To Remain In Power

Betting sites expect Greece’s governing party New Democracy to win the most seats at the upcoming elections, and retain power in the Hellenic Parliament.

New Democracy’s leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis was elected into office four years ago and his party has maintained a poll lead ever since that snap election.

The government’s main opposition - Syriza - is a left-wing party that is seeking a return to power. 

But the polls suggest this could be a narrow but still positive win for Mitsotakis and his members.

All 300 seats in parliament are up for grabs on May 21, with 151 the magic number to secure a majority. 

New Democracy (ND) secured 158 at the last election and have ruled as a majority since.

The polls have narrowed since Mitsotakis announced the election date back in March. In fact, support for ND was already falling after the horrific train crash in late February led to voters turning away from the PM.

But Politico have crunched the numbers and reckon New Democary have a six-point lead over their rivals, and should secure the most seats.

This may or may not be enough to land a majority. After all, at the last election ND’s eight-point lead resulted in them winning just seven seats above the required line.

Yet UK bookmakers reckon New Democracy are on course to at least be the biggest party, and are most likely to get the majority they need.

Betting On Greece Elections - Latest Odds And Predictions

According to politics betting sites, New Democracy have an 89.5% chance of winning the most seats in Parliament this month. 

Those odds of 1/7 reflect a confidence amongst bookmakers and pollsters that the centre-right party will remain in power.

Syriza, meanwhile, are down at 4/1 to land the most seats, which carries an 20% probability.

These odds have shifted from the summer of 2021 when ND held a 15-point poll lead over their rivals. 

But in recent months support for the government has waned, thanks in large part to the PASOK-KINAL alliance gathering momentum.

PASOK-KINAL’s leader Nikos Androulakis replaced Fofi Gennimata following the 2019 election and helped generate a polling boost to 16 points last summer, when the centre-left party began making an impact in Parliament.

That support has since waned a little, but it’s been enough to eat into ND’s popularity.

It means Syriza aren’t out of the race to become Greece’s biggest party in Parliament, even if a majority appears too much of a stretch.

How The Greek Election Works

Greece has an elected parliament that sits as one house, and is voted for every four years. 

There are 300 seats up for grabs, but how these seats are distributed is the tricky part. A party needs at least 3% of the proportion of votes to get at least one seat in Parliament.

If no party secures more than 50% of the vote, then a second round of voting is held – most likely in early July. 

It means we probably won’t know the exact make-up of Greece’s parliament until the middle of summer.

That second round will also be different, because it will revert to what’s called “semi-proportional representation” that features with a sliding scale seat bonus, in an effort to create a majority.

Reuters reports that a party probably needs to be polling at 46% to translate into a majority. Right now, not even ND are close to that.

So, what happens if there isn’t a majority? In this instance, President Katerina Sakellaropoulou gives the leader of the biggest party three days to form a coalition. 

If that doesn’t work, then the second-biggest party will get the chance to form a coalition government.

And if that still doesn’t work, either the president holds a meeting with party leaders and forms the government herself, or creates an interim or caretaker government until another election can be held.

Vote Share Betting

While New Democracy are the big favourites with Ladbrokes to win the most seats in Parliament, bettors are seeking alternative wagers on Greek politics. 

And one area of focus is on vote share – particularly between the two main parties.

New Democracy’s six-point lead over Syriza is fragile. The bookies therefore have them at 4/11 to win more votes than Syriza with a -3% handicap.

Syriza, in contrast, are 19/10 to win more votes than ND with a +3% handicap.

Greece Election Betting Trends - What To Expect In The Next Election

Greece, like Turkey, is heading into a spring election off the back of a tragedy. 

The Turkish presidential elections looked like a foregone conclusion for incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan, until two earthquakes in February triggered outcry over his leadership.

In Greece, the train crash that killed 57 people caused voters to turn their ire on Mitsotakis. His poll ratings have suffered as a result.

Additional worries about the economy are also hampering Mitsotakis’ party. New Democracy have pledged to cut taxes further, achieve 3% annual growth, attract more foreign investment and cut unemployment to 8%. 

The government also returned a primary surplus in its budget last year - an achievement unheard of in Greece during a period of economic turmoil.

Mitsotakis hopes that the economic argument can get him through these elections, even if the country - like others around it - groans under inflationary pressures.

Syriza, meanwhile, argue Mitsotakis is in league with populists in Italy and Hungary, and that his immigration policy is damaging to the country. Party leader Alexis Tsipras says ND was responsible for the February train crash.

As for PASOK-KINAL, their leader Androulakis is seeking a return to the old days when this party was one of the big hitters. 

He’s accused the leaders of both ND and Syriza of being unfit to lead the country, and wants to bring in green legislation to push Greece towards energy independence.

Androulakis is unlikely to win a majority as his odds on betting apps show, but could end up as prime minister if he’s given the chance to form a coalition.