Italian Election Betting: Giorgia Meloni And Fratelli d’Italia Tipped For Victory

Betting sites have shortened their odds on Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia party leading a right-wing bloc to victory at the Italian election with just days to go before the vote.

Italy heads to the polls on September 25 with 600 seats across the country’s reshaped parliament up for grabs.

The snap national election means a new prime minister will also be appointed as parties jostle to push their leader to the front of the queue following Mario Draghi’s resignation earlier this summer.

The Italian election is a snap poll thanks to Draghi being unable to retain the support of both left- and right-wing parties in his cross-parliament coalition, which had got Italy through the Covid-19 crisis.

There is now gridlock in the Italian parliament – but a snap election and a redrawing of the political map means there is hope some progress can be made going forward.

And Meloni - leader of Brothers of Italy since 2014 and former Minister of Youth - could soon see herself get the top job.

Indeed, political betting sites believe the 45-year-old is well on course to become Italy’s next prime minister. 

Described by some newspapers as a “firebrand”, Meloni has overseen Fratelli d'Italia's rise to the top of the opinion polls.

She’s done this by pitching herself and her party as anti-establishment but also a threat to civil liberties. 

She’s happy to court favour with the EU, in contrast to the previously popular Lega party, but also has strong right-wing stances on immigration, LGBT rights and abortion.

By pushing her party into the centre ground, Meloni looks like she’s secured power. But she will also have to deal with the far-right support that has got her this far.

How The Italian Election Works

The 2022 Italian election marks a new chapter in the country’s governance. Italy held a constitutional referendum two years ago, which promised to reshape parliament. 

Whereas currently there are 630 members of the Chamber of Deputies (the lower chamber) and 315 members of the Senate (the upper chamber).

This is now being changed. From Sunday, Italy will have 400 Deputies and 200 Senators. The prime minister is the leader of the controlling party, while Italy will keep its presidential system too.

The Italian election will take place on Sunday, 25 September, and a victor should be announced the next day.

It is expected that another hung parliament will be announced, as was the case in 2018. If this does happen, parties will need to come together in order to create a coalition in order to find a majority.

Meloni is expected to get that majority either from her own Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy) party or with the help of other centre-right and right-wing parties, such as Forza Italia, Lega and perhaps even Movimento 5 Stelle (Five Star Movement).

Who Will Win The Italian Election?

Bloomberg reports that Italy's right wing is set for a landslide victory. That means Fratelli d’Italia being supported by Forza Italia and Lega should sweep to power. The bloc has a 20-point lead over the centre-left coalition led by Enrico Letta’s Democratic Party.

Indeed, some pollsters believe the right-wing bloc could secure as much as two-thirds of the seats going in Italy’s parliament – enough to make wholesale changes to the country.

Reuters have calculated Letta's centre-left PD party will secure 88 representatives in the lower house, and 44 in the Senate. By contrast, the conservative bloc could earn 258 and 131 seats respectively.

And betting apps have taken note. Since the final polls were released two weeks before the election, Meloni’s odds have come in from 1/8 to be the next prime minister to 1/14.

Indeed, odds compilers also have her party at 1/14 to win the most seats in parliament – a probability rate of 93.3%.

Meloni’s surge in popularity is partly down to her commitment to continuing fiscal frugality that was the centrepiece of Draghi’s government, and also the plight of Forza Italia and Lega. Fratelli d’Italia has therefore become the natural destination for millions of voters disenfranchised by previously inspirational right-wing parties.

UK Bookmakers price Draghi at 19/2 to be the prime minister after this election, which signifies a 9.5% chance. Meanwhile, Letta and Salvini are both way out at 21/1.

Italexit Odds Boost

This really is Meloni’s election to lose – but with comes fear from across the EU that it may spark a fresh appetite for exiting the bloc.

Italy’s right-wing parties have flirted with leaving the EU for some time but there has never been a concrete push to test the mood of the nation. Many supporters of Fratelli d’Italia are anti-EU, but Meloni has softened on her hospitality to Brussels in recent months.

Right now Meloni doesn’t seem interested in rocking the EU boat, especially with Draghi only recently injecting the economy with a €14bn aid package aimed at stabilising inflation.

Still, bookmakers have Italy as the favourites to next leave the EU at 18/5, ahead of Greece at 7/1. That’s a one-in-five chance Italy could vote to exit the bloc – but right now it’s not top of Meloni’s agenda.