Kier Starmer Risks Losing Labour Leadership in Hartlepool

Labour’s Sir Kier Starmer faces the toughest challenge of his party leadership to date after it was announced a by-election will be held in Hartlepool this year.

Hartlepool is expected to elect its new MP at the start of May to coincide with local elections across the UK.

The constituency has never voted for anyone but Labour since its formation in 1974 but this by-election will be seen as a major test of Labour’s strength in the north – where they hope to hold the seat vacated by Mike Hill.

Yet the latest politics betting odds suggest the Conservatives have a fighting chance of winning this election and potentially bringing Starmer’s leadership to the ground.

What’s more, if Boris Johnson’s party can extend their reach into another ‘red wall’ seat it would offer much validation to how the Tories have handled the past year as coronavirus and economic hardship sweeps the nation.

Tories Favourite To Win Hartlepool

Incredibly, the latest Ladbrokes betting odds indicate that the Conservatives will win Hartlepool. As soon as their market opened bettors drove the price down to 4/5 favourite, with Labour stuck at Evens despite this seat being wedged firmly in their heartland.

The shift towards expectation that the Tories will win this seat is indicative of recent spikes in popularity, not only for Johnson but also the party.

Reports claim the PM has privately stressed that the government cannot rest on its laurels over recent polling, with analysts believing the recent upward trend is down to the success of the Covid-19 vaccine roll-out.

As for Starmer, the 58-year-old’s own polling figures have worsened in recent months due largely to Labour’s inability to find a fixed position on coronavirus.

While the government’s handling of the crisis has resulted in the worst death rate in Europe, Starmer has been criticised from the opposition as well as those on both wings of his own party for not holding a firm line.

Starmer’s odds on being ousted as Labour leader in 2021 fell from 5/1 to 3/1 upon the announcement that Hartlepool will hold a by-election. The drop is significant as it coincides with a rising personal disproval rating that hit 45% in mid-March, coming close to Johnson’s 48%.

Election Campaigning

The expectation that the by-election will be held on the same day as the local elections means there is an even greater pressure on the UK’s two biggest parties to set the tone during April campaigning.

Labour will likely focus their efforts on the NHS, the government’s refusal to offer nurses a pay rise above 1%, and unemployment.

The Tories, meanwhile, are expected to point to the success of the vaccine drive and stress the perceived benefits of Brexit over the coming weeks, particularly to those in Hartlepool who voted Leave by 70-30.