London Mayoral Odds Say Sadiq Khan Landslide Not Guaranteed

Sadiq Khan is not guaranteed to earn a landslide victory in the upcoming London mayor election despite holding a strong lead in the polls.

Recent politics betting markets have suggested that Khan – the current mayor of London – is on course to keep his post when voters in the capital head to the ballot box in May.

The Labour candidate has a 47% lead in the polls, compared to 26% for Tory candidate Shaun Bailey and 9% for the Greens’ Sian Berry.

Yet while Khan is on course to remain the capital’s mayor for another four years, the ease with which he is likely to earn re-election may not be so straightforward.

And that’s because the London mayoral election system is a Supplementary Vote system, where voters choose not one but two candidates. This gives Londoners the chance to still back Khan but only as their secondary option – and UK bookmakers are taking notice.

Khan Mayor Odds

According to the latest UK politics betting markets, the May election could go to the second round of voting. Khan needs 50% of the first round of votes to become mayor, or the count will advance to a second stage. When Londoners’ second votes are taken into account, Khan is expected to win.

But bookmakers have him at just 3/5 to win an outright victory on the first count. Conversely, the London mayoral election advancing to secondary votes is priced at 15/11 – an implied probability of 42.3%.

Of course, regardless of whether the London mayor election is settled in the first round or the second, Khan is almost certain to win.

With such a strong poll lead over his closest rival Bailey, Khan enters his re-election campaign knowing he just has to avoid controversy to stave off a Conservative spike.

Khan The Heavy Favourite

Indeed, the incumbent is currently as short as 1/33 with some UK bookmakers to win the mayoral election this spring. Remarkably, Tory candidate Bailey isn’t even the second favourite, with that accolade going to independent Brian Rose, who runs the London Real podcast and YouTube channel.

Rose has come in at 7/1 to win the election, with Bailey out at 25/1. The shift indicates how strongly punters believe the power of social media and populist politics can sway the masses – although for now it’s not enough to topple Khan’s lead.

Khan is pledging to build 10,000 new council homes, introduce rent controls and make London carbon neutral by 2030 as part of his manifesto. Bailey, meanwhile, has pledged more police, the restoration of TfL’s finances and the building of 100,000 new homes for £100,000 each in his manifesto.