Next Scottish Labour Leader Betting: Sarwar vs Lennon

Betting on the next Scottish Labour leader has pitched Glaswegian Anas Sarwar as the favourite ahead of rival Monica Lennon to get the job when party members vote later this February.

Scottish Labour is scheduled to elect a new leader after Richard Leonard resigned from the post in January. He quit amid calls from some of his own MSPs to stand down over concerns his leadership would impact on Labour’s standing at this summer’s Scottish Parliament elections.

Labour is facing a fight for survival north of the border in the face of growing support for the SNP in recent years, which has seen much of the left-wing vote in Scotland shift away from Labour.

The party is due to vote in its fourth permanent leader since the 2014 independence referendum delivered a narrow No vote in favour of staying in the Union.

And the politics betting odds suggest Mr Sarwar is all set to claim victory at the vote on February 27 and take Scottish Labour into a crucial Holyrood election come May.

Anas Sarwar Odds

According to the latest politics betting odds, Sarwar is 1/3 to be the new Labour leader in Scotland. That suggests a likelihood of 75% on him winning.

Sarwar, 37, was elected as a member of the Scottish Parliament in 2016 – a year after his five-year stint as an MP in Westminster came to an end. The former NHS dentist held the position of Deputy leader of the Scottish Labour Party for three years under former Westminster leader Ed Miliband.

Writing in the Guardian recently, Sarwar argued that Scotland requires greater devolution but not Scottish independence.

“For the SNP it’s the signature policy of independence at all costs; and for the Tories it’s the status quo. Neither is what our country needs,” he wrote. “The main priority of the next five-year Holyrood term should be healing the wounds in Scotland and rebuilding our country with a parliament focused on Covid recovery.”

Monica Lennon Odds

Lennon, MSP for Central Scotland, has been Scottish Labour health spokesperson since 2018. She has been vocal in recent days about both the SNP and the Westminster Conservative party’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

Yet her odds on becoming Scottish Labour leader sit at 9/4 with most UK bookmakers.

Having described Boris Johnson as “not a serious prime minister” and “a dangerous politician” in a recent interview, Lennon then went on to dismiss suggestions a second Scottish independence referendum would deliver a break-up of the Union. Like Sarwar, she is a supporter of greater devolution but not independence.

“I’m trying to reach out beyond the party because I’m serious about bringing people back to Labour,” she said.

“I want to rebuild the party in a really authentic way so that people can feel at home in the Labour party. People like most of our policies, but they take their votes elsewhere, usually to the SNP.”