How Long Will Rishi Sunak Last As UK Prime Minister?
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UK betting sites believe Rishi Sunak’s successful attempt to force through his Rwanda deportation bill has done nothing to improve the prime minister’s chances of staying in power after the next election.
Mr Sunak forced a bill past the House of Lords late on Monday night to rewrite the government’s view of Rwanda being a safe country, meaning illegal migrants can now be departed to the African state.
He had brought the bill forward in an attempt to appease a mass drain of support from the right of his party, with many voters departing the Conservatives for Reform UK.
Betting apps think Mr Sunak’s actions have come too late if he wants to save his political career, with one even widening their odds of a Tory majority at the next election.
Indeed, it appears certain that Mr Sunak will be out of a job once voters head to the polls. In fact, he may even face a leadership contest before that if the May local election proves disastrous for the party.
Rishi Sunak Odds
Political betting sites have priced Mr Sunak at 8/1 to be prime minister after the next election for weeks.
His price drifted out after it emerged the UK entered a recession in 2023. Sir Keir Starmer – Labour’s leader – is around 1/7 to be PM next.
So wide are the Sunak odds that many punters are instead wagering on when he could leave Downing Street.
The widespread assumption is this will happen at the next general election. November is the most likely month of the next election at 11/10, with October at 6/4.
So, Mr Sunak seemingly has only a few months to save his premiership.
Passing his Rwanda bill may help but only if he gets a flight of migrants off the ground. If this is delayed then the right of his party could become fed up with waiting.
The bill also does nothing to curb dissatisfaction among centrists and left-leaning voters who were never fans of the government’s anti-immigration rhetoric in the first place.
It appears as though they are already considered to be ‘lost votes’.
Will Sunak Face A Rebellion?
The Rwanda bill keeps the wolves from the door for now. However, things could quickly spiral for Mr Sunak if his party lose hundreds of local council seats at the May 2 elections.
Were this to happen then it could trigger calls for either a leadership contest, or for him to resign. This is what ultimately cost Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss their jobs.
The Conservatives currently trail Labour by 21 points. Forecasts suggest they may win just 155 seats.
Tory MPs fearful for their jobs could turn on Mr Sunak and roll the dice one last time in the hope of landing on a leader who can claw back the poll deficit.
Penny Mordaunt, Kemi Badenoch, and Suella Braverman would all be in the mix. Ms Mordaunt would be the more obvious, centrist option. However, strong populist influence within the party means Ms Braverman cannot be overlooked.
Mr Sunak would almost certainly lose a one-on-one leadership contest with any challenger.
He has tried to paint himself as the change candidate for the country but the party hasn't seen enough in him to fully support his leadership.
For now, only a handful of letters have been filed to the 1922 Committee. At last count, 52 are needed to spark a genuine challenge for the top job.
All this could play out during the summer when the Tories are licking their local election wounds and both Labour and the Lib Dems are preparing for the general election. Time is running out for Mr Sunak as much as it is his party.
If neither he nor his MPs are decisive then the Conservatives are staring at electoral wipeout.
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