Tories Overtake Plaid in Welsh Assembly Election Betting

Welsh Conservatives look set to overtake Plaid Cymru as the second-most popular party in the country when the 2021 Welsh Assembly elections take place later this year, betting data suggests.

The upcoming Welsh Assembly vote is seen as a chance for the UK’s main political parties to assess how they have fared during the coronavirus pandemic and subsequent economic impact.

The Tories won 11 seats during the last Welsh Assembly elections back in 2016 – equalling their worst result since the inaugural vote for the devolved government in 1999. Indeed, 2011 is the only election where they have earned more seats than nationalist party Plaid.

But the rise in popularity for the Conservatives under Boris Johnson – revealed in the six-seat gain in Wales at the general election 14 months ago – has put the Tories on a path to claiming more Assembly seats than Plaid.

According to the latest odds, the Conservatives have come in to 7/2 second favourites to win most seats at the 2021 Welsh Assembly elections, while Plaid have drifted to 16/1.

Labour Remain Favourites

Of course, Labour remain heavy favourites to secure the most votes when the population of Wales heads to the polls on May 6.

Labour have won all five previous elections – although crucially have never secured a 31-seat majority in the 60-seat parliament.

Labour leader Mark Drakeford has his party on course to win again, with UK bookmakers Coral pricing them at 1/5.

But it is how the rest of the votes are split between the other parties that could better shape how the devolved government operates over the next five years.

Plaid, Conservative or UKIP?

Plaid have always stood on a ticket of delivering Welsh independence, but efforts to even discuss the issue in the Welsh Parliament have often failed to get past the voting stage. Yet while the UK’s response to the coronavirus crisis has only strengthened Scottish independence sentiment, there doesn’t seem to be a flavour for it in Wales.

A recent ITV Wales poll suggested just 22% would vote Yes in a referendum on independence, while 53% would vote No.

And the Conservatives appear set to at least overtake Plaid in the upcoming elections thanks in large part of the Westminster party delivering Brexit. In 2016 UKIP earned seven Welsh Assembly seats and in the 2019 general election 35% of Wales’ constituencies voted Tory.

For now it appears as though nationalism is on the back foot. UKIP are not expected to do much in the summer vote, nor are the Liberal Democrats. The five-year-old Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party may hope to latch onto former UKIP votes, but the expectation is the main political parties will pick up those seats.

Welsh Assembly Previous Vote Share

• 2016 – Labour 29 Plaid 12 Conservative 11 UKIP 7 Lib Dem 1
• 2011 – Labour 30 Conservative 14 Plaid 11 Lib Dem 5
• 2007 – Labour 26 Plaid 15 Conservative 12 Lib Dem 6
• 2003 – Labour 30 Plaid 12 Conservative 11 Lib Dem 6
• 1999 – Labour 28 Plaid 17 Conservative 9 Lib Dem 6