Local Elections Betting: Tories Set To Flop In Cheshire And Oxford

UK Local Elections betting – Tories Set To Flop In Cheshire And Oxford, No Labour Majority In Sheffield

Betting sites expect the Conservative party to suffer a humbling defeat across the country at Thursday’s local elections - but the latest odds aren’t totally convinced Labour will storm councils either.

The Conservatives have been bracing themselves for another devastating local elections defeat ever since Boris Johnson was toppled as prime minister following numerous sleaze scandals in 2022.

Johnson survived an insurrection in the wake of last May’s heavy losses, but it was an indication of the dissatisfaction across the country with his leadership. 

Since then, Liz Truss has tanked the economy and Rishi Sunak has spent the last six months trying to get voters back onside.

And while Sunak has succeeded in narrowing the polls with Labour - the Tories are now just 14 points behind the opposition, rather than 30 back in October - it doesn’t look like it’ll be enough to save his party this month.

Indeed, betting sites are well prepared for what could be a disastrous night for the Conservatives, even if the impending defeat won’t be enough to oust Sunak from office.

Local Elections Betting

This year’s local elections are focused on England and Northern Ireland, where some councils - but not all - are choosing new councillors. 

The vote on May 4 will see more than 8,000 seats contested across 230 councils in England, while Northern Ireland will vote in 11 councils on 18 May.

Bedford, Leicester, Mansfield and Middlesbrough are also holding mayoral elections.

Political betting are offering odds on overall control for parties such as Labour, the Lib Dems and the Conservatives, plus No Overall Majority. And while the Tories are likely to lose seats, it doesn’t guarantee Labour will pick up the pieces and secure a wave of majorities.

Here, we look at eight councils UK bookmakers reckon could make an impact at the elections this week…

Cheshire East

There is currently no overall control in Cheshire East’s council, but a working coalition of Labour and Independent members has pushed out the 31-member Conservatives from minority rule. 

This is a big shift from the decade-long majority the Tories had before the 2019 election. William Hill reckon the result will be No Overall Control once again, at 1/7. 

A Labour majority is priced at 9/2, which is perhaps not out of the question. Cheshire East is certainly a council to monitor for those seeking an outside wager as the Tories sit at 20/1.

Sheffield

Sheffield’s city elections last year backed Labour and the Lib Dems at practically the same level as last time out. 

This year there are 28 seats up for grabs, including the sole Conservative seat of Stocksbridge & Upper Don.

The bookies reckon this is a shoot-out between Labour and the Lib Dems. And because not all 84 seats are up for reflection, it’s highly likely that No Overall Majority at 5/6 is the outcome, although Labour are tipped at 10/11 to ruffle feathers here.

York

York is another one of those toss-up councils between Labour and the Lib Dems. In 2019, the Liberals earned 21 seats to Labour’s seven, while the Greens outperformed the Tories.

Bookmakers aren’t expecting anything different here, and they have the Lib Dems as the 4/11 favourites to secure a majority. 

Labour hope the recent outcry over blue badge parking restrictions could help their cause. But a Labour majority is still priced way out at 25/1.

South Oxfordshire

The Greens made their mark on South Oxfordshire in 2019 with five seats, beating Labour into third place. Still, this is a council that votes Conservative, and increasingly Lib Dem too. 

Indeed, in 2019 the Lib Dems earned most seats but not enough to take overall control. One would assume this is therefore a toss-up between Blue and Yellow.

But Ladbrokes have assessed the market and reckon the Lib Dems have a 38.1% chance of securing a majority, at odds of 13/8. 

The Tories, meanwhile, have just a 3.8% chance. A split council with no overall control appears the most likely outcome here.

East Cambridgeshire

East Cambridgeshire has elected a Conservative majority since 2007, but there’s a possibility the Lib Dems could take back control for the first time since the early 2000s. 

In fact, we already began to see that drift away from Blue votes in 2019, when the Tories saw their 36 seats cut to 15.

The bookies reckon this council is about to flip Yellow. A Lib Dem majority is priced at 2/7, while the Conservatives are out at 8/1. One battleground area is Littleport, where nine candidates are standing.

Walsall

Labour have not had overall control of Walsall Metropolitan Borough Council since 2000 - and that’s unlikely to change here. 

The Conservatives have a 15-seat majority on the council and improved their advantage by one seat last year. 

Infighting among the Tories hasn’t helped their campaign, and long-time leader Mike Bird is under pressure to get results here. He is defending his Pheasey Park Farm seat for the 11th time.

Only 20 wards are up for election here and the Tories are 1/6 with Coral to keep their majority. It would take a wild swing for Labour (14/1) to conquer the council here.

Stockport

All 63 seats in the Stockport Metropolitan Borough Council are up for grabs on May 4, and this is a face-off between the Lib Dems and Labour. 

The Tories haven’t been a force here since the mid-1990s but will be hoping to improve on their four-seat haul last time out.

The odds have the Lib Dems at 4/9 to secure a majority, with No Overall Majority at 13/8. That looks like a viable wager in this key battleground.

Bolton

Another key battleground is Bolton, but here it’s a clash of Red and Blue. All 60 seats are on the table, and the Conservatives are currently the biggest party with 26. 

You need 31 seats to form a majority at Bolton Town Hall, but betting apps only see it going one way for the Tories.

Indeed, No Overall Control at 2/7 is the most likely outcome here, while Labour are 6/4 to snag a majority, although they need to double their current haul to do so. The Conservatives are out at 16/1.

This is a Red Wall seat that recently flipped Blue at general elections, but which is regaining its Labour support.