Italy Vs New Zealand Betting Tips: 3 Autumn International Selections

Italy needed to manufacture their biggest ever comeback to defeat Georgia last weekend, marking another disappointment in their November series following the 50-18 thrashing at the hands of Argentina. 

It therefore comes as no shock that they’re enormous underdogs with rugby betting sites in their 17th meeting with New Zealand, especially as they have lost the previous 16 and don’t look the part based on their last two appearances.

After losing to France by a point in Paris last Friday, the All Blacks are treating this match as anything but an end-of-season friendly as far as their preparation is concerned.

Scott Robertson has picked a surprisingly strong team for a fifth straight matchweek, particularly with Super Rugby pre-season trials only two months away. 

Even with the main handicap moving five points following New Zealand’s squad announcement, we’ll still be keen to take the All Blacks at the spread, whilst we have identified two likely try scorers in what could be a flood of tries to the men in black. 

Italy vs New Zealand Predictions:

• New Zealand -30.5 Points - 1.90 With Bet365
• Will Jordan To Score A Try - 1.44 With Bet365
• Ardie Savea To Score A Try - 1.80 With Bet365

Italy Vs New Zealand Betting: All Blacks To Run Riot In Rome

On the basis of Italy being underwhelming in consecutive weeks and New Zealand matching or beating the odds in three of their four games so far, the most recent form points towards the All Blacks being more likely to exceed expectations. 

We would have loved the main spread to stay at 25.5 points as it was prior to the All Blacks squad announcement, but betting apps were anticipating New Zealand to take this match a lot more lightly than they have. 

A margin of at least 31 points would also fit in with the head-to-head history, which has seen the All Blacks clear a winning margin of 32+ points in all five encounters since 2012, whilst their last 15 games against Tier 2 opponents all saw margins in excess of this handicap. 

Italy are a top-tier team, but they have at times in 2024 struggled to compete with them, losing to Samoa earlier this year and almost suffering the same fate against Georgia last weekend. 

Italy vs New Zealand Prediction 1: New Zealand -30.5 points - 1.90 @ Bet365

Italy Vs New Zealand Predictions: More Joy For Jordan

Lengthy try-scoring streaks are not unfamiliar territory for Will Jordan, who has an insatiable appetite for finding the line whether he wears number 15 or 14.

Following tries against England, Ireland and Australia on two separate occasions, he has matched his effort of the 2023 World Cup in which he scored in all four pool-stage games, including a double against Italy. 

That was Jordan’s only meeting with Italy of his career, but there’s much more in his favour that points towards a New Zealand win-Jordan try-scorer double. 

He was on the scoresheet in 13 of his last 14 winning internationals for the All Blacks, including each of their three Rugby Championship triumphs, all four of their Rugby World Cup victories and two in last year’s Rugby Championship. 

He’s therefore synonymous with All Blacks success and, even at the short odds, makes a smart selection for bettors expecting New Zealand to win.

Italy vs New Zealand Prediction 2: Will Jordan to score a try - 1.44 @ Bet365

Italy Vs New Zealand Tips: Savea To End His Drought

One man who seems to score only when his team wins, but has been unable to do so on his northern tour so far, is All Blacks number eight Ardie Savea.

He was a try scorer in two of New Zealand’s three Rugby Championship triumphs alongside Jordan as well as in two of their three home wins against England and Fiji in mid-2024 and victories over Ireland and Italy at the World Cup.

Savea also notched up a double in the 96-17 World Cup game against Italy and subsequently was on the scoresheet in six of his last 11 international victories.

Most of them came against stronger opponents than Italy, so that as well as the previous head-to-head meeting, suggests the near even-money price on New Zealand betting sites is a fair one. 

Italy vs New Zealand Prediction 3: Ardie Savea to score a try - 1.80 @ Bet365