Nevada Swing State Betting: Trump Takes Big Lead Over Harris In Final Week

UK betting sites have flipped their Nevada state election odds and believe Donald Trump has a two-in-three chance of beating Kamala Harris on Tuesday.

Vice president Harris leads the Nevada state polls by less than one percentage point as we close in on the election.

Neither Harris nor Trump has enjoyed anything greater than a 1.2% poll lead over the other since Harris replaced Joe Biden on the Democrat ticket in August.

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Nevada has voted Democrat for the last four elections and has backed the winning president in all but one election since 1976. In fact, all but two candidates since 1912 have won Nevada and walked into the White House.

There are only six electoral college votes up for grabs in the Silver State, yet it’s seen as a major prize for both Democrats and Republicans as the parties battle it out for the presidency. It is the ultimate bellwether state.

Yet punters are throwing their weight behind Trump in the last week of the campaign, as they predict a big win for the GOP candidate.

Latest Nevada Election Betting Odds

Indeed, bookies reckon there is less than a 26.6% difference in Trump’s favour of him beating Harris and winning the state. Boylesports has shifted its Trump odds from Evens to 1/2 in recent days.

Betfred, meanwhile, has inflated Harris’ odds to a new high price of 13/8. That suggests Harris has just a 38.1% chance of winning.

The difference between the two is growing, despite the polls suggesting this is a neck-and-neck state. We’re a long way down the road from when betting apps had Harris as the 8/11 (57.9%) favourite.

Who Will Win Nevada?

Swing state betting is never easy precisely because the odds and polls are so close. In the case of Nevada, historic voting patterns suggest the state will side with Harris. 

However, she’s unlikely to get the 50.1% of the vote Joe Biden earned in 2020, or the 55.2% and 52.4% handed to Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 respectively.

Harris could win this election with as little as 47% of the electorate, given that Trump lost Nevada to Hillary Clinton in 2016, carrying just 45.5% of the vote.

Voters in Las Vegas and the surrounding counties have never really taken to Trump. His supporters rose from 2016 to 2020, but so did the Dems.

This year could be different. Nevada has felt the cost of living much harsher than other states. A high unemployment rate and surging inflation is turning voters against the Biden administration. Yes, Harris has bedrock support but how deep it is remains to be seen.

One major Trump policy could decide the election: an end of the taxation of tips. Scrapping the tips tax would hand more money to the pockets of low-paid, casual workers in Las Vegas’ enormous service industry.

Harris has matched the pledge but Trump owns the narrative. Indeed, the former president is relying heavily on his economic message to retain and gain votes.

Trump’s blanket tax on Chinese imports is the sort of headline policy that strikes well with voters.

Harris’ plans are more nuanced, less eye-catching.

Money could well decide the election in Nevada and which way its six electoral college votes turn. For bettors, it’s a near-impossible race to call.