2022 Epsom Derby Preview: Who Will Reign Supreme?

You have to start your Derby thinking with Aidan O’Brien who has eight winners of this prestigious event.

That is more than the legendary Dr Vincent O’Brien, his predecessor at Ballydoyle who made The Derby his own. It’s also more than any other trainer in almost a quarter of a millennium of The Derby.

And this year, as much as any other year, Aidan O’Brien has dominated the trials and therefore tops the markets for Epsom Derby betting offers. The Leopardstown Derby Trial, the Chester Vase, the Dee Stakes, the Lingfield Derby Trial – they have all been won by an Aidan O’Brien-trained colt.

Stone Age Primed For Big Run

Stone Age received Derby quotes from betting sites when he won his maiden at Navan in March by nine lengths, and he was catapulted to the top of the market when he won Leopardstown’s Derby Trial by five and a half lengths.

Making all the running and coming clear of his rivals inside the final furlong under Ryan Moore in the style of a seriously talented and progressive young horse.

The Galileo colt didn’t win in five attempts last year as a juvenile, but he was highly tried. Second, beaten a head, in the Group 2 Champions Juvenile Stakes on Irish Champions’ Weekend, sixth in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, second in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud. But he continued his progression, and that was always the plan.

That also meant that he could start off this season in a maiden and build from there. All his career, he has been progressing. He put up the best performance of his career last time at Leopardstown, and there is every chance that he will go beyond that at Epsom on Saturday.

Desert Crown The One To Beat

Stone Age was usurped as Derby ante-post favourite though by Desert Crown in mid-May, when the Sir Michael Stoute-trained horse won the Dante at York.

The Nathaniel colt ran just once last season as a juvenile, he won a Nottingham maiden by five and a half lengths, but the Derby market spoke volumes during the lead up to his three-year-old debut at York.

He was actually weak in the pre-race Dante market, but he was strong in the race itself. He hit the front at the two-furlong marker, and he powered clear under Richard Kingscote to beat the Royal Lodge winner Royal Patronage by more than three lengths.

There is an awful lot to like about Desert Crown. Unbeaten in two runs, winner of the Dante, one of the most potent Derby trials, by Enable’s sire, and trained by a man who has won five Derbys. The only thing that is unattractive about him as a betting prospect in the Derby is his odds.

Ballydoyle Battalion Have Every Chance

By contrast, the two Aidan O’Brien-trained colts who, with Stone Age, make up the three-pronged Ballydoyle Derby challenge are both interesting at their respective prices. It is often the case that the Ballydoyle horses in the Derby, outside the number one, are under-rated and therefore over-priced with horse racing betting sites.

Common consensus used to be that, if you thought you had several Derby horses, then, in reality, you had none, but that notion has long since been blown out of the water. It is common practice for Aidan O’Brien to run more than one, simply because even he doesn’t know for sure which one is going to come out on top.

The Ballydoyle Derby colts are all talented and progressive colts who are bred for the Derby. They are all improving at different rates, adolescents who are getting better with experience, and you can’t know for sure which of them is going to step forward most on Derby day.

It is almost a given that, whatever horse wins the Derby will have put up the best performance of his career up to that point.

As well as that, you can’t know for sure which horse is going to handle Epsom best: the crowds, the razzamatazz, the hills, the cambers, the downhill run, the uphill finish. And they won’t have been tried at home.

Not under Derby conditions. They won’t have been asked to dig deep into their energy reserves at the end of a mile and a half. Nobody knows how deeply a colt will dig until he is asked to dig.

Interestingly, when Aidan O’Brien achieved his eighth and most recent Derby victory with Serpentine in 2020, Emmet McNamara driving him to victory in front of the empty stands, he left three better-fancied stable companions in his wake.

When Anthony Van Dyck won The Derby under Seamie Heffernan in 2019, he had two better-fancied stable companions behind him.

And when Wings Of Eagles came late under Padraig Beggy and won The Derby in 2017, he beat Cliffs Of Moher by three parts of a length, with Capri and Douglas Macarthur and Venice Beach behind him, all Aidan O’Brien-trained colts, all shorter in the better than the winner was.

Changingoftheguard is an interesting Derby contender. Like his stable companion Stone Age, he didn’t win in as a juvenile either, but he won his maiden at Dundalk in April by six lengths, and he stepped forward from that last time when he won the Chester Vase.

He made all the running that day and, while his task was made easier than it might have been by the fact that his main rival New London under-performed, he couldn’t have done much more than he did.

That said, his stable companion Star Of India is even more interesting at a bigger price. Aidan O’Brien’s horse won the Dee Stakes at Chester the day before Changingoftheguard won the Vase, and there was a lot to like about the performance that he put up there.

Prominent from early, he switched to his right early in the home straight, and he stayed on well to come clear of his rivals. That was just his third run, he has buckets of potential for progression.

His stamina for a mile and a half is not guaranteed. He won his maiden on his racecourse debut at Leopardstown last October over seven furlongs, and he made his debut this season in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket over a mile.

Also, he is a half-brother to Sudirman, who won the Railway Stakes and the Phoenix Stakes, both over six furlongs.

However, Star Of India is a full-brother to Roman Empire, who won his maiden as a juvenile over a mile on heavy ground as a juvenile at Gowran Park, and who finished second in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot over 10 furlongs. And he is by Galileo, and you never know how far a son of Galileo is going to stay.

As well as that, he raced in the Dee Stakes as if he would get further, as if he would improve for a step up in trip. That was over 10 and a half furlongs, he only has another furlong and a half to go in The Derby.

There is every chance that the Derby distance is within range, and the unknown about his stamina is more than compensated for by his odds.

Piz Badile A Big Player Too

Donnacha O’Brien’s horse battled on well to get the better of subsequent Tetrarch Stakes winner Buckaroo in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown in April, and he will have Frankie Dettori for company. Also, Westover could out-run his odds.

He was a good winner of the Classic Trial at Sandown in April, a race that has been won in the past by Derby winners Troy and Shergar and Henbit and Shahrastani, and by other top class middle-distance performers Fantastic Light and Old Vic and Sakhee and Pentire

It is also a race in which Derby winner Adayar finished second last year and Ralph Beckett’s horse left the impression at Sandown that day that there could be much more to come.

It is a deep race, a fascinating race. It always is. It’s a perennial conundrum, a race that always gets you thinking.