2023 Tour de France Stage 11 Picks & Predictions: Caleb Can Threaten Jacobsen

2023 Tour de France 2023 Stage 11 Picks

• ✅ FAVORITE: Jasper Phillipsen (+100)
• ✅ CONTENDER: Dylan Groenewegen (+650)
• ✅ LONGSHOT: Caleb Ewan (+1000)

Following a well-deserved rest wedged between two challenging days in the hilly terrain, the remaining field sprinters in the Tour will finally have an opportunity to battle for victory in Moulins at the conclusion of Stage 11. This stage might be their sole chance to secure a win during the Tour's second week.

Moulins is hosting its inaugural Tour de France stage finish, although the town is no stranger to hosting the Paris-Nice race in March. The renowned "Race to the Sun" last graced Moulins in 2019 when Sam Bennett from Ireland triumphed over Australia's Caleb Ewan (+1000) and the Netherlands' Fabio Jakobsen (+1200) in an exhilarating sprint to claim the stage victory. 

While Bennett, representing BORA-hansgrohe, did not make the team selection this year, Ewan (Lotto Destny) and Jakobsen (Soudal-Quick Step) are still competing and eagerly seeking a stage win for their respective teams.

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2023 Tour de France Stage 11 - Stage 11 - Clermont-Ferrand to Moulins (179.8km)

This stage poses a formidable challenge, featuring three Category 4 ascents and a rugged profile for the initial two-thirds of the route. 

However, the intensity subsides significantly after the last climb—the Category 4 Côte de la Croix Blanche—which the riders conquer with 61.3km remaining in the race. Consequently, there is ample opportunity for the sprinters' teams to catch up with anyone who may have broken away earlier in the day.

As the riders approach the finale in Moulins, they will encounter two roundabouts, along with a right-left dog-leg approximately 1,500 meters before the finish. 

Beyond that point, it's mostly a straightforward path leading to the finish line. The last 3 kilometers of the route are as flat as a pancake, rendering it an ideal stage for the Tour's sprinters known for their pure speed.

The intense heat of the past few days is expected to break overnight, with cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 70s expected throughout the day.

2023 Tour de France Stage 11: The Favorites

Following Mark Cavendish's departure, it becomes challenging to argue in favor of any sprinter other than Jasper Philipsen (+100), who, barring any unexpected mishaps, appears poised to secure the victory in this stage. Philipsen’s won three stages so far in this year’s Tour and is showing no signs of slowing down any time soon.

2023 Tour de France Stage 11: The Contenders

While Dylan Groenewegen (+650) and Fabio Jakobsen (+1200) may pose a threat on this stage, they have struggled to match Jasper Philipsen's dominance thus far, making it difficult to present a compelling argument for a potential shift in the dynamics here.

Although Wout van Aert (+800) and Mads Pedersen (+1200) have displayed greater competitiveness, this stage does not cater to their particular strengths. To secure the stage victory, they would likely require a more demanding terrain to showcase their abilities.

2023 Tour de France Stage 10 Picks & Predictions: Jasper Phillipsen to Win (+100)

The talented Danish rider won each of the first three bunch sprints and Stage 11 is built for sprinters. Expect him to be heavily involved throughout Stage 11 of the Tour de France and that's why Jasper Philipsen is one of the favorites to win the Tour de France Stage 11 at +100.

Caleb Ewan (+1000), meanwhile, ran Philipsen close during Stage 4, and is therefore worth an interest if you're looking for a value bet.

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