2023 Tour de France Stage 16 Picks & Predictions: Vingegaard & Pogacar Go Head to Head

2023 Tour de France 2023 Stage 16 Picks

• ✅ FAVORITE: Tadej Pogacar (+125)
• ✅ CONTENDER: Vout van Aert (+600)
• ✅ LONGSHOT: Carlos Rodriguez (+8000)

Following a well-deserved rest day, the Tour de France recommences on Tuesday, featuring the sole individual time trial of the race. 

Spanning 22.4 kilometers, the race against the clock takes place from Passy to Combloux and is characterized by a Category 2 climb towards the end of the route. 

This particular layout is expected to provide an advantage to the General Classification (GC) contenders rather than the time trial specialists in the Tour.

Just 10 seconds seperates Jonas Vingegaard (+125) and Tadej Pogacar (+100) in the standings with their remarkable prowess in the mountains evident throughout the race. However, as the first time trials of this year's edition approach, their ability to excel against the clock is yet to be determined.

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2023 Tour de France Stage 16 - Passy to Combloux (22.4km Individual Time Trial) 

The stage commences in Passy, located not far from the base of the climb leading to Saint-Gervais, where Stage 15 concluded with a summit finish. 

From the town of Combloux, where the 22.4km individual time trial sets off from, you can enjoy spectacular clear, full views of Mont Blanc in all of its glory.

Right from the start, the riders will head north, embarking on their journey towards the initial challenge of the day: the uncategorized Côte de la Cascade de Cœur, which they will conquer after a mere 4.1 kilometers.

Having reached the summit, they will descend swiftly towards the first time check, positioned 7.1 kilometers into the stage, and continue onwards to Sallanches. 

This segment of the course represents the fastest section, as the riders accelerate downhill from the pinnacle of the Côte de la Cascade de Cœur, heading towards the town that hosted the world road championships in 1964 and 1980. 

Notably, the latter edition was triumphantly won by the renowned French cycling legend, Bernard Hinault.

2023 Tour de France Stage 16: The Favorites

This stage is expected to play to the strengths of the Tour's leading riders, Jonas Vingegaard (+125) from Denmark representing Jumbo-Visma, and Slovenia's Tadej Pogacar (+125) from UAE Team Emirates. Notably, both of them are renowned time trialists within the race. They possess the ability to generate power on the stage's flat and downhill sections, and can elevate their cadences and wattage outputs during the final climb towards the finish line.

Given Vingegaard's position as the race leader, he holds a slight psychological advantage as he will start the time trial after Pogačar. This grants him the advantage of knowing all of the Slovenian's times as he progresses through the course's three checkpoints. Nevertheless, it wouldn't come as a surprise if the time gaps between the two riders are not considerably vast by the end of the day.

2023 Tour de France Stage 16: The Contenders

In the event that neither of these two riders secures the stage victory, our bet would be on Belgium's Vout van Aert (+600) from Jumbo-Visma. Eager to clinch a stage win, he came tantalizingly close in Stage 15 on Sunday and is widely regarded as one of the world's top performers in time trials. 

His team will provide him the freedom to give his all, as his intermediate times will aid in strategizing Jonas Vingegaard's own performance. Moreover, van Aert is expected to hold his ground admirably during the final climb.

2023 Tour de France Stage 16 Picks & Predictions: Carlos Rodríguez to Win (+8000)

Away from the obvius two contenders, it would be wise to monitor Spain's Carlos Rodriguez (+8000), who currently occupies the third position overall as, despite being a promising 22-year-old, Rodríguez is not a weak time trialist. 

A strong performance on Tuesday's stage could significantly widen the gap between him and Great Britain's Adam Yates from UAE Team Emirates, as well as Australia's Jai Hindley from BORA-hansgrohe, in the battle for the final podium spot in the Tour de France.

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