2023 Tour de France Stage 17 Picks & Predictions: Can Anyone Stop Jonas Vingegaard?

2023 Tour de France 2023 Stage 17 Picks

• ✅ FAVORITE: Jonas Vingegaard (+200)
• ✅ CONTENDER: Adam Yates (+1400)
• ✅ LONGSHOT: Pello Bilbao (+4000)

Jonas Vingegaard landed a devastating blow to the hopes of  Tadej Pogacar winning a third Tour de France title with a crushing performance in the stage 16 time trial from Passy to Combloux on Tuesday.

Vingegaard, who started the day just 10 seconds ahead of Pogacar after over two weeks of racing, extended his lead by 1min 36 seconds to 1min 48 seconds with a dominant performance on the hilly time trial to claim to the first time trial of his career.

There are still two mountain stages left before we get to Paris, but defending champion Jonas Vingegaard (+200) looks like he is in awesome form, and he has a lead of almost two minutes over Tadej Pogacar (+275) to defend too.

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2023 Tour de France Stage 17 - Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc to Courchevel (165.7km)

Stage 17 brings the Tour’s final day in the Alps with over 5,000m of elevation and four categorized climbs: the Category 1 Col des Saisies, the Category 1 Cormet de Roselend, the Category 2 Côte de Longefoy, and the Hors Categorie Col de la Loze.

The stage commences in Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc, the end point of Stage 15, before it descends into a valley to reach the first uphill challenge: the Category 1 Col des Saisies (13.4km at 5.1 percent). 

A sizable group is anticipated to break away between the stage onset and this climb's base. This group is likely to feature Italy’s Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) and American Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), currently leading the Tour’s King of the Mountains Classification. 

They will strive to maintain their positions against Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) of Denmark and Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates) from Slovenia, by accumulating maximum points on the stage's initial three climbs.

The breakaway group, possibly including a few GC contenders out of the title race, is expected to keep the lead over the Category 1 Cormet de Roselend (19.9km at 6 percent) and the Category 2 Côte de Longefoy (6.6km at 7.5 percent). 

However, they would need a significant lead to overcome the stage's most formidable hurdle – the Hors Categorie Col de la Loze (28.1km at 6 percent) – ahead of the GC contenders and ultimately win the stage.

2023 Tour de France Stage 17: The Favorites

The emphatic victory for Jonas Vingegaard (+200) in Tuesday's time-trial was testament to his form throughout this Tour. This is bad news for UAE, because this stage and Loze are perhaps the best suited to the Dane. If Vingegaard can do what he does best, then he could well have the Tour won at the end of the day.

2023 Tour de France Stage 17: The Contenders

UAE will not try anything crazy with Adam Yates to try and put pressure on Jumbo as the gaps are too big and he has his sights set on the podium fight. Five seconds ahead of Carlos Rodríguez, this has become the battle to watch. Sepp Kuss (+5000) is not too far from Jai Hindley (+10000) in the tussle for fifth place while Pello Bilbao (+4000) and Simon Yates (+2800) are also within range if someone has a bad day. 

2023 Tour de France Stage 17 Picks & Predictions: Carlos Rodríguez (+2800) to Win

Carlos Rodríguez (+2800)  is still vying for a podium position. His consistent, steady approach to climbing could be advantageous in managing his energy to reach the summit of Col de la Loze. To secure a victory, however, he'll be reliant on Vingegaard and Pogačar focusing on their own rivalry, similar to their dynamic on Joux Plane the previous weekend.

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