Best MLB Bets Today & Top 3 Player Props for 07/28

Best MLB Bets Today & Top 3 Player Props for 07/28

• ⭐ MLB Player Prop: Mitch Keller 5 + hits (-400) at BetMGM Sportsbook
• ⭐ MLB Player Prop: Joe Musgrove Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120) at bet365 Sportsbook
• ⭐ MLB Prop Bet: Brewers vs. Braves: Brewers to win on the Moneyline (+150) at DraftKings Sportsbook
• ⭐ MLB Player Prop: Cristian Javier over 5.5 strikeouts (-128) at Fanduel Sportsbook

There are no fewer than 15 MLB games taking place on Friday as the second half of the season continues apace. With so much still to be decided and places in the post season up for grabs for many teams, it's sure to be a thrilling night of baseball action. 

So, what should we be betting on for these games? Well, our MLB betting experts have looked over the odds and come up with a range of MLB best bets and MLB player props  for Friday, including the Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates and the Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros.

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Now, let's delve into the MLB player props we've selected for today and revel in the national spirit while appreciating America's favorite pastime!

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Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates, 7:05 PM ET 

MLB Player Prop: Mitch Keller 5 + hits (-400) at BetMGM

The starting pitchers here, Zack Wheeler for the Phillies and Mitch Keller for the Pirates, are on differing paths. Wheeler is hovering around the Cy Young contention, while Keller, after a promising start to the season, has been facing some challenges.

Wheeler has consistently delivered impressive ERAs over the past three seasons, making his early-season near-5.00 ERA a surprise. However, he has managed to reduce his ERA in his last two starts, suggesting a return to form. The Phillies' defense has also seen improvements, with Bryce Harper's move to first base allowing Kyle Schwarber to take up the DH role. This change, coupled with a bit of bad luck, has contributed to Wheeler's ERA-FIP gap.

On the other hand, the Pirates started the season with a strong offense, but have since seen a significant drop in their wRC+. Their pitching, particularly Keller's, has also been inconsistent. After a strong start with a 2.44 ERA and a 2.68 FIP in his first 10 starts, Keller's numbers have risen to a 5.51 ERA and a 4.88 FIP in his subsequent 11 starts.

The number of home runs allowed by Keller has also increased, from five in his first 10 starts to 11 in his last 11 starts so it's likely that he'll give up his fair share of hits here.

MLB Player Prop #1: Mitch Keller 5 + hits (-400) at BetMGM

Texas Rangers vs San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET 

Best MLB Player Prop: Joe Musgrove Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120) at bet365

The Texas Rangers have been struggling of late, with only two victories in their last six games and barely maintaining a .500 record on the road. 

Their performance is further hampered by the absence of Corey Seager, the team's OPS leader. Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres are keen to secure their spot in the Wildcard and have managed to win two of their last three series.

Rangers' starting pitcher, Dane Dunning, has been off his game recently, having given up five runs in his last outing. In contrast, the Padres' starting pitcher, Joe Musgrove, has been in exceptional form, boasting an impressive 1.80 ERA in his four starts this month. 

His stellar performances against the Angels, Mets, and Blue Jays have contributed to the Padres' three victories in his four starts this month.

Best MLB Player Prop: Joe Musgrove Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120) at bet365

Milwauke Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves, 7:20 PM ET

MLB Prop Bet: Brewers to win on the Moneyline (+150) at DraftKings Sportsbook

The Braves experienced a challenging series in Boston recently, managing only four runs in the two games at Fenway. For the month of July, they rank 15th in runs scored. Despite boasting a .769 team OPS this month and arguably the most intimidating lineup in the sport, their performance has noticeably cooled.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers have seen an uptick in their offensive performance. They have a .730 team OPS this month, and despite ranking 26th in OPS for the season at .687, key players have stepped up. Christian Yelich has been exceptional with a 1.094 OPS and six home runs this month. Sal Frelick, despite only playing five games since returning from injury, has made a significant impact, hitting .417 in his 12 at-bats and injecting much-needed energy into the lineup.

Atlanta will heavily rely on their bullpen, which has been performing well this year, posting a 3.46 ERA in July. While the Braves have the potential to win this and every game on their schedule, their current form suggests they might be slightly overvalued. It wouldn't be surprising to see Milwaukee keep this game competitive, if not secure a win as an underdog.

MLB Player Prop: Brewers to win on the Moneyline (+150) at DraftKings Sportsbook

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros, 8:10 PM ET

MLB Player Prop: Cristian Javier over 5.5 strikeouts (-128) at Fanduel Sportsbook

The Rays, who currently hold a 62-43 overall record and a 25-24 road record, boast the 5th ranked offense in the MLB with a .771 OPS. After a day of rest on Thursday, they will be looking to bounce back from their recent loss. 

Shane McClanahan, who holds an 11-1 record with a 2.89 ERA this season, will be the starting pitcher for the Rays. Despite his impressive record, the team has lost their last two games in which he made an appearance. In his last outing, McClanahan allowed 5 earned runs over 4 innings against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Astros, with a 58-45 overall record and a 27-23 home record, are coming off a series win against the Texas Rangers. Their offense ranks 15th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Cristian Javier, with a 7-2 record and a 4.32 ERA this season, will be the starting pitcher for the Astros. The team has won four of the last five games in which Javier has appeared. In his last start, he allowed 2 earned runs over 5.2 innings against the Oakland Athletics.

MLB Player Prop: Cristian Javier over 5.5 strikeouts (-128) at Fanduel Sportsbook

As we look forward to another gripping night of MLB action, there's another exciting development on the horizon for sports betting enthusiasts. Come this September, Kentucky will be launching online sports betting, paving the way for the emergence of new Kentucky betting apps. This opens up a new realm of opportunities for fans and bettors alike. Stay tuned for more updates on this front.