Best NBA Prop Bets Today & Heat vs. Nuggets Game 3 Odds, Predictions

Gabe Vincent's exceptional shooting skills have been crucial for the Miami Heat, and in Game 3 of the NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets, he is listed at +100 to surpass 2.5 made three-pointers. Vincent has been one of the Heat's most reliable long-range shooters, and based on his performance, it is expected that he will easily exceed this mark.

During the regular season, Vincent averaged 1.7 made three-pointers per game, shooting at 33.4% from beyond the arc. However, in the playoffs, he has significantly elevated his performance, averaging 2.6 made three-pointers per game while shooting an impressive 41.3% from long range. In his most recent game, Vincent recorded four made three-pointers while shooting at an outstanding 66.7% from downtown.

Vincent's consistency in making three-pointers is evident throughout the playoffs, as he has cleared the 2.5 made three-pointers mark in 10 out of his 19 games. With his impressive playoff performance, his ability to consistently make threes, and his recent success in Game 3, it is highly likely that Vincent will surpass the 2.5 made three-pointers mark once again. 

Betting on him to make more than 2.5 threes appears to be a favorable proposition given his reliability and efficiency from beyond the arc.

Best Pick: Vincent Threes Made Over 2.5 (+100)

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As the NBA Finals move to Miami with the series tied at one win each, there are significant changes in the dynamics of the matchup. Although Jimmy Butler has the potential to surpass the 25.5-point mark, he has fallen short in seven out of 13 games since returning from his ankle injury. In the Finals against the Nuggets, Butler has only scored 13 and 21 points respectively.

The Nuggets, led by Aaron Gordon, have effectively limited Butler's ability to penetrate the paint. Previously, Butler averaged 9.9 shots per game within eight feet of the basket, but in the Finals, he has only attempted a total of 10 shots from that range in two games.

Gordon's defense has forced Butler to pass out of 63% of his drives, a significant increase compared to his pre-Finals average of 35%. Consequently, Butler's free throw attempts have decreased, with only five total attempts in the first two games.

While it may be challenging to fade a superstar, Butler's expected scoring projection is around 22 points, making it difficult to surpass the 25.5-point line.

Best Prop Bet: Jimmy Butler Under 25.5 Points (-120) 

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Porter Jr. faces a crucial challenge in Game 3 as his playing time could be at risk due to defensive concerns. In the previous game, Porter struggled to maintain defensive assignments, frequently losing sight of shooters behind the three-point line. 

Miami's strategy revolves around capitalizing on perimeter shooting, making it imperative for the Nuggets to address this issue promptly. Notably, Porter's presence on the court coincided with the Nuggets being outscored by 15 points, leading to reduced minutes for him in favor of players like Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Christian Braun.

Throughout the postseason, Porter's scoring output has notably decreased when he is on the court. His usage rate has dropped from 22.7% in the regular season to 16.9% in the playoffs, essentially relegating him to a three-point specialist role. 

Although he remains a formidable threat from beyond the arc, this shift has limited his offensive potential. While Porter has compensated for this by contributing on the glass, his role in Game 3 appears precarious, highlighting the need for him to address defensive concerns and prove his value to secure significant playing time.

Best Prop Bet: Michael Porter Jr. Under 22.5 points + rebounds + assists (+115) 

In Game 2, Kevin Love's insertion into the starting lineup had a significant impact on the Miami Heat. The key storyline of Game 1, which highlighted the Nuggets' size advantage, was addressed as Love reset the matchups and provided the Heat with improved spacing and rebounding.

Love's presence on the court proved effective, as he contributed as a rim protector on defense and forced the Nuggets into tougher rotations due to his added spacing. This adjustment also allowed Jimmy Butler to guard Jamal Murray, a critical matchup change that the Heat will likely prioritize in Game 3.

While Love's single game +/- may not be predictive, it does reflect the positive role he played in the Heat's early lead and their second-half turnaround, as indicated by his +18 in 22 minutes.

Despite scoring only six points on 2-9 shooting in Game 2, Love's line is set at 5.5 points in the upcoming game. However, considering his critical play and the extended playing time he is expected to receive, this presents a plus-value betting opportunity. With a similar shot volume, it is reasonable to anticipate that the 2016 NBA champion will convert at a higher rate, making the over 5.5 points prop bet on Kevin Love enticing.

Best Prop Bet: Kevin Love Over 5.5 points (-115) 

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⭐More Nuggets vs. Heat Articles: ⭐ 

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