Best NFL Over/Under Bets & NFL Picks for Thursday Night Football Steelers vs. Patriots

⭐ UNDER 30 Points (-115) at BetMGM

The Pittsburgh Steelers' offense remains unimpressive, even after the departure of Matt Canada. 

In their last two games without Canada, the Steelers averaged a mere 13 points per game, despite facing bottom-ten defenses. 

This lackluster performance raises concerns, especially as they now face the Patriots' top-ten defense, potentially exacerbating their offensive struggles. 

Similarly, the New England Patriots' offense is struggling, matching Pittsburgh's woes. 

Despite their defense limiting opponents to 10 or fewer points in three consecutive games, the Patriots lost all three, a rarity not seen since the 1938 Arizona Cardinals. 

With no signs of a turnaround, especially against Steelers' stars T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick, the Patriots' offense is unlikely to find its rhythm in the upcoming game.

⭐ Best NFL Picks: UNDER 30 Points (-115) at BetMGM

⭐ Mitchell Trubisky UNDER 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+180)  at Caesars

The low total for the game indicates that touchdowns may be scarce. 

The Steelers have a tendency to rely on their running game in the red zone. This season, they have scored seven out of 11 touchdowns from within the 20-yard line via rushing.

In their last five scoring plays, four have been on the ground, including three of four from inside the red zone. While Trubisky did score a touchdown pass against the Cardinals on Sunday, the circumstances of the game likely influenced this outcome.

Considering the Patriots' defense has allowed only two touchdowns in their last three games – one rushing and one passing – the expectation for a high-scoring game seems unlikely.

⭐ Best NFL Picks: Mitchell Trubisky UNDER 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (+180) at Caesars

⭐ Jaylen Warren UNDER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at DraftKings

Warren has been in good form lately, but he faces a tough challenge against the Patriots' formidable rushing defense. 

In four of their last five games, New England has held opponents to less than 80 rushing yards and currently ranks third in Pro Football Focus's run defense grades. 

While the Steelers excel in their running game, ranking second in rushing yards per attempt, Warren has shown inconsistency against top-tier defenses. 

He averages 59.2 yards per game in five matches against teams with a top-five rush defense DVOA but has often fallen short of this mark.

Given the game's short rest period and Warren's recent 59-yard performance against the Cardinals' weaker run defense, I don't expect him to break the 42.5 yard mark.

⭐ Best NFL Picks: Jaylen Warren UNDER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at DraftKings