Best NRFI Bets Today & MLB Picks for Pirates vs. Cubs Predictions 09/20

⭐ Mets vs. Marlins: First Inning No Run (-110) at BetMGM

The Mets take on the Marlins to decide the winner of a three-game set in Miami. New York will send Kodai Senga to the mound, and the Marlins, who are half a game behind the final wild card in the National League, will counter with Eury Perez. The starting duo promises some great pitching, so my best NRFI bet today is on the Mets vs. Marlins. 

Kodai Senga (11-7) is enjoying a wonderful rookie season. The 30-year-old right-hander boasts a 2.95 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 191/72 K/BB ratio in 27 starts (155.1 innings pitched). He’s been outstanding over his previous five outings, allowing just six earned runs on 17 hits and 13 walks while punching out 42 across 32.2 innings of work. 

Senga holds a 91 opposing OPS+ in the first inning. Although the leadoff hitter has a 121 OPS+ versus Senga, the two-hole owns a 58 OPS+, and the three-hole holds a 52 OPS+. On the other side, Eury Perez (5-5) has been torturing the leadoff batters (25 OPS+), though the three-hole has a 128 OPS+ against the 20-year-old rookie right-hander. Perez carries a strong 3.06 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 106/28 K/BB ratio (18 starts, 88.1 IP). He’s yielded nine runs (eight earned) on 19 hits and seven walks over his last five starts (26.1 IP). 

⭐ Best MLB Pick: Mets vs. Marlins First Inning No Run (-110) at BetMGM

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⭐ Giants vs. Diamondbacks Under 7.5 Runs (-110) at DraftKings

The Arizona Diamondbacks beat the San Francisco Giants 8-4 last night and look to sweep a two-game home set. The Diamondbacks will start Merrill Kelly in tonight’s closer, while the Giants will counter with Logan Webb, so I’m taking the under as my best MLB pick for the Giants vs. D-backs showdown. 

Logan Webb (10-12; 3.31 ERA; 1.05 WHIP) is 5-2 with a shiny 2.62 ERA in nine career starts against Arizona. He’s met the Diamondbacks three times this season, tallying a 2.57 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through 21 innings of work. The current Diamondbacks are 25-for-115 with seven doubles and two home runs against Webb, who’s only surrendered six earned runs on 19 hits and two walks over his previous four starts and 26.2 frames of work in 2023. 

On the other side, Merrill Kelly (11-7; 3.45 ERA; 1.21 WHIP) is coming off a rough start against the NY Mets in which he allowed seven earned runs across five innings. Kelly can only pitch better this time around, and the veteran righty is 6-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 17 career starts versus San Francisco. The current Giants are 47-for-209 with 12 doubles and six homers against Kelly. 

Over the last ten days, the Giants bullpen has registered a 3.72 ERA and 3.13 FIP. The Diamondbacks ‘pen has recorded a 2.47 ERA and 5.41 FIP in that span, so the under on the totals would be my best Giants vs. D-backs betting pick. 

⭐ Best MLB Pick: Giants vs. Diamondbacks Under 7.5 Runs (-110) at DraftKings

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⭐ Mitch Keller Over 17.5 Outs (-120) at FanDuel

⭐ Justin Steele Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+140) at bet365

Here’s another tremendous pitching duel. The Pirates will go with Mitch Keller (12-9; 4.04 ERA; 1.24 WHIP), who’s been their best hurler all season long, while Justin Steele (16-4; 2.73 ERA; 1.14 WHIP) will toe the slab for the Cubs. Pittsburgh would like to play the spoiler against its divisional rival, as the Cubbies barely hold the final wild card in the National League and are desperate for a win. 

Mitch Keller tossed eight scoreless innings in a 2-0 victory against the Washington Nationals last Thursday. Back on August 25, Keller also threw eight shutout frames, leading his team to a 2-1 win over the Cubs. He’s recorded 18 or more outs in each but one of his previous six outings, so Mitch Keller Over 17.5 outs (-120) at FanDuel is my best MLB player prop today. 

Another intriguing MLB player prop for the Pirates vs. Cubs showdown would be Justin Steele Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+140) at bet365

. It’s a tough wager, but the prize is quite tempting. Steele yielded six earned runs last time out. The 28-year-old lefty will look to bounce back in a favorable matchup against the Pirates, who have registered a lousy .610 OPS and 61 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers in the past two weeks (123 plate appearances). 

⭐ MLB Player Prop 1: Mitch Keller Over 17.5 Outs (-120) at FanDuel

⭐ MLB Player Prop 2: Justin Steele Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+140) at bet365

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