Bills vs. Patriots NFL Player Props, Odds & NFL Picks for 10/22

⭐ My Best Bet: Mac Jones Longest Completion Under 29.5 Yards (-110) at BetMGM

Looking at these Bills vs. Patriots Predictions, the most surprising was the line here for Jones’ longest completion. 

This season, Jones is completing just 64.2% of his passes, has 6.0 yards per attempt, and his average depth of target is at 8.3, but he’s been 6.2 or less in two of his last three games. 

On passes of 10-19 yards downfield, Jones is completing 61% of his throws with a yards per attempt of 10.0 and an average depth of target of 13.8. On throws 20+ yards, he’s completed just five of them. 

Four players have a reception over 29.5 yards, including Pharaoh Brown (three receptions), Demario Douglas (10 receptions), Kendrick Bourne, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson. 

Against this Bills pass rush, the Patriots weak offensive line won’t allow plays enough time to develop. Thus, we’ll have to depend on a catch-and-run, and no receiver on the Patriots has yards after the catch per reception higher than 6.9 yards. 

For our NFL Picks and Props in Week 7 for this Bills vs. Patriots prediction, take Jones’ longest completion under 29.5 yards. 

⭐ My Best Bet:Mac Jones Longest Completion Under 29.5 Yards (-110) at BetMGM

⭐ Stefon Diggs Anytime touchdown (-105) at FanDuel

Our next NFL Picks in this Bills vs. Patriots prediction features Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs, and we think he will score a touchdown. 

The Patriots will start Jonathan Jones, J.C. Jackson, and Myles Bryant in this matchup. Jones profiles as the player Diggs might see the most of, and in 81 snaps this season, Jones has allowed 70% of his targets to be receptions and 131 yards. 

Diggs has seen double-digit targets in all but two games this season and has scored four times in three weeks. 

He also has 34 more targets than the next closest player on the Bills. 

He has an excellent matchup against the Patriots and will see plenty of work. 

Expect Diggs to score a touchdown for our second NFL Week 7 Predictions. 

⭐ Best Betting Pick: Stefon Diggs Anytime touchdown (-105) at FanDuel

⭐  Rhamondre Stevenson Under 10.5 Rush Attempts (+110) at DraftKings

Lastly, in this installment of our Bills vs. Patriots predictions, we expect another mediocre rushing day for Stevenson. 

In making this NFL Week 7 Pick, we considered Stevenson’s lack of usage in the running game the past two weeks, with eight attempts in Week 5 and 10 in Week 6. As 8.5-point underdogs, the Patriots won’t be in many situations to run the ball. Thus, we could see Stevenson have a pass-catching role (as he should) as he did in Week 6, where he caught five passes on six targets. 

With the +110 value, don’t look for a running back who’s had less than this the past two weeks, who’s in a committee with Ezekiel Elliott, and can catch balls in a more-than-touchdown spread to perform well on the ground. 

Thus, in our final NFL Prediction in Week 7, we’ll go under on Stevenson’s rush attempts. 

How to Watch Bills vs. Patriots

• Date: Sunday, October 22, 2023
• Kick Off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
• Where to Watch: CBS

⭐ Best Betting Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Under 10.5 Rush Attempts (+110) at DraftKings