Buffalo Bills vs Washington Commanders Odds & NFL Week 3 Predictions 09/24

The Bills are 6.5-point favorites against the 2-0 Commanders on the road. Both teams are 1-1 against the spread this season. The over/under in this game is 43.5 points. Spoiler alert—we think this score goes over for as one of our NFL best bets today. 

How to Watch Bills vs. Commanders

• Date: Sunday, September 24 (Week 3)
• Kickoff: 1:00 pm ET
• Location: FedExField Landover, MD
• Where to Watch: CBS

The Commander has had two thrilling victories to start the year while the Bills struggled in Week 1, allowed the Las Vegas Raiders to score first in Week 2, but ultimately came back to trounce them, allowing just 10 points and scoring almost 40. 

This will be an exciting quarterback matchup as Allen isn’t afraid to sling it all over the field while Howell, a bit more conservative, has shown some excellent accuracy, especially in Week 2.

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He completed 69.2% of his passes for 299 yards and two touchdowns against a difficult Broncos defense, and he could potentially have an easier matchup here against the Bills secondary. 

The Bills have a lengthy injury report, including safety Micah Hyde, tight end Dawson Knox, edge rusher Leonard Floyd, and defensive lineman Jordan Phillips. Da’Ron Payne is on the injury report for the Commanders, who is an excellent presence in the defensive interior. The team is likely to be without tight end Logan Thomas after suffering a concussion in Week 2. 

Don’t sleep on the Commanders' defense here with Chase Young, Jonathan Allen, and Montez Sweat bearing down on this weakened Bills offensive line. 

⭐ My Best Bet: Commanders +6.5 ATS (-110) at BetMGM

Below are some betting trends that helped make our Bills vs. Commanders picks.

Bills vs. Commanders Betting Trends:

• The Commanders were 2-1 ATS as underdogs of 6.5 points or more in 2022.
• The Commanders won four games outright last season when they were underdogs.  
• The Bills were 5-6 last season when favored in games by 6.5 points or more. 

⭐ NFL Best Bets 1: Commanders +6.5 ATS (-110) at BetMGM: The Bills scored 38 points against the Raiders while picking off quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo twice. Josh Allen completed 31 of 37 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns. 

The Commanders have a capable defense, especially in the front seven against this Bills offensive line. Also, the Bills secondary, which could be without Hyde, has to battle a group of weapons, including Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, and running backs Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson Jr. 

Not only will the Commanders cover here, but there’s a chance they could win outright. 

⭐ NFL Best Bets 2:  Over 43.5 total points (-110) at Caesars: While the Commanders' defense should match up well here, we have to give credit to Allen where it’s due. He’s an excellent quarterback and should be able to overcome most of the disadvantages. As for the Commanders and Howell, the Bills' defense has enough holes for him to complete passes to his myriad of weapons. 

Look for this total to go over. 

⭐ NFL Best Bets 3:  Sam Howell Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+168) at FanDuel: Getting plus line value for two touchdown passes against a Bills secondary that could be without Hyde, several legitimate weapons, and a coverage unit that’s allowing a reception rate of 76.9% and two touchdowns from their “top” cornerback Tre’Davious White is an excellent value play. 

He passed for two in Week 2 against a secondary with Patrick Surtain II, who’s easily the best cornerback he’s faced this season, including those on the Bills roster. 

Take the chance here at +168. 

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