Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction, Odds & CFB Week 5 Picks

• Date:  Saturday, September 30, noon EDT
• Location: Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky
• TV: ESPN
• My best bet: ⭐ Florida +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Kentucky has cruised through its first four games but will now face its best opponent yet when it hosts Florida in an SEC showdown. It's a step up for the Wildcats who have beaten the likes of Ball State, Eastern Kentucky, Akron and Vanderbilt. Not exactly a murderer's row of opponents. 

We're going to go with Florida +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM. We prefer how the Gators have already faced two ranked teams this season in No. 14 Utah and No. 11 Tennessee. Florida managed to defeat Tennessee and limit its explosive offense to just 16 points and 387 yards of offense. Meanwhile, Florida's rushing attack has been solid, with running back Trevor Etienne breaking out for 172 yards and a touchdown in the win over Tennessee. 

Replacing Will Levis at quarterback is Kentucky's biggest challenge this year after Levis was drafted by the Tennessee Titans. Saturday will be the first time we see Wildcats quarterback Devin Leary and Kentucky's offense challenged by a defense of Florida's caliber. There are too many unknowns there to want to back Kentucky in this one.

Best bet: ⭐ Florida +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

⭐ Grab Extra $200 and Place Your College Football Best Bets Today ⭐

My best bet: ⭐ Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel

Florida has relied on its defense to its 3-1 start, relying on a ground game to control the drive and clock and trusting the defense to grind down opponents. It's a formula that has led to three of Florida's four games going under the total this season. 

We like the under of 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel between Florida and Kentucky. The Gators have allowed just 30 points in the last three games, including just seven to McNeese and Charlotte each, and 16 points to No. 11 Tennessee. In the one loss, the defense wasn't the issue when the Utes managed 24 points while gaining only 270 yards of offense. 

We're also not sold yet on Kentucky's offense. The Wildcats' four opponents have a combined record of 4-13, so the offense has yet to be tested. Meanwhile, Florida isn't likely to pile up the points as it looks to establish the run and methodically move the chains instead of going for large chunk plays. The Gators can chew up the clock as they did in the 22-7 win over Charlotte, highlighting how they can control the game. 

Kentucky is also more than comfortable playing this type of style, so we expect conservative offensive approaches from both teams in this matchup as Kentucky acclimates itself against stiffer competition, and Florida aims to rely on its defense. 

Best bet: ⭐ Under 44.5 (-110) at FanDuel

⭐ Grab Extra $200 and Place Your College Football Best Bets Today ⭐

• Offer Details: Users cannot claim this offer and the first bet offer up to $1,500. The $200 bonus bet offer cannot be used in conjunction with any other BetMGM sportsbook promotion.
• How to Claim: Sign up online with BetMGM KY bonus code GAMBLINGFB200- Make a first deposit of at least $10 and place a bet of $10 or more. After placing a qualifying bet, you will receive $200 in bonus bets regardless of the bets outcome.
• Terms & Conditions: If the bet wins, you will be paid in cash. Bonus bets are given as four $50 bets. For more T&Cs, please check the BetMGM KY online site.

• Offer Details: FanDuel's betting app is offering a great opportunity to bag up to $200 in bonus bets as part of their Kentucky sports betting launch.
• How to Claim: Visit FanDuel's online platform, complete the registration process, and your bonus will activate after your first deposit and first real-money wager on any market live on the platform.
• Terms & Conditions: For Desktop users, there will be a post-registration interstitial that pops up instructing users to download the app to claim their offer. For users on mobile web, they will be instructed as usual to download the app to deposit, which will then trigger the market
• Other Promotions: Alongside the bet $5 get $200 bonus offer, FanDuel keeps things interesting with an amazing $5,000 No Sweat First Bet Bonus Offer for new Kentucky users - CLICK HERE.