Houston Texans at Atlanta Falcons Odds, Predictions & NFL Picks 10/08

Allowing 19.3 points per game, the Falcons are taking on a Texans offense scoring 24 points per game. The Texans' defense allows 19.8 points per game, while the Falcons are averaging just 15.5. We like the Texans as +1.5 underdogs.

Notably, the Falcons haven’t scored double-digit points since Week 2. They scored seven on the road against Detroit and six last week in London against the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

No quarterback in the NFL is playing worse than Falcons starter Desmond Ridder as we examine this Falcons vs. Texans prediction. 

He’s completing just 62.2% of his passes for 744 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and a staggering ten turnover-worthy plays. 

With players like Kyle Pitts and Drake London on the roster, tight end Jonnu Smit leads the team in receiving 179 yards. Running back Bijan Robinson is second with 134 yards. 

Meanwhile, it seems the Texans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud are firing on all cylinders. Stroud is completing just 62.3% of his passes, but he has more than double Ridder's attempts. He has 1,212 passing yards, six touchdowns, and no interceptions. 

Even at home, giving points to any opposing team is hard if you’re the Falcons. This offense has almost nothing going for it besides the rushing attack, which should play well against a Texans defense that allows 116.5 rushing yards per game. 

Still, with how much the Texans are throwing and how Stroud is getting the most out of weapons like Nico Collins and Tank Dell, the Texans should be able to hang in there and even win this matchup. 

⭐ Best ATS Pick: Texans +1.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Texans vs. Falcons Moneyline Best Bet

Getting plus NFL odds here, we like the Texans moneyline at +105 on the road in an upset. 

The Falcons' defense this season has been excellent against the pass, holding teams to just 176.3 passing yards per game. They also have a respectable front seven with David Onyemata and Grady Jarrett, who should be able to pressure Stroud a bit against this so-so offensive line. 

Going back to the Falcons offense, though, unless Robinson and fellow running back Tyler Allgeier can really keep things going, there’s not a defense in the league that we think Ridder can do well against.

Under pressure this season, Ridder completes just 47.1% of his passes for 160 yards (4.7 yards per attempt). 

This passing offense has no juice, and while their defense has shown up in coverage, the Texans throw a ton and should be able to score here. 

⭐ Best ML Pick: Texans (+105) at Caesars

Despite how much we’ve knocked Atlanta’s offense in our Falcons vs. Texans predictions, we still recognize the power of their rushing attack and like  the over of 41.5 (-115) at FanDuel.

Examining their offense, Robinson and Allgeier should be able to run well here and set the Falcons offense up positively. They’ve scored less than 10 points in back-to-back games against much tougher defenses than the Texans. We did see the Falcons score 25 back in Week 2 at home against the Packers, and a big part of that was the rushing attack, so we know this offense can score points when they can rely on their running back and perform well. 

For the Texans, this offense has been rolling. Stroud is tied for second in the league in attempts at 151 and fourth in passing yards at 1,212. 

In addition to his passing ability, they have a solid running back in Dameon Pierce, who scored twice in their 37-point performance against the Jaguars.

Look for the Falcons' run game and Texans' passing game to carry them over here for the third of our NFL picks today. 

⭐ Best O/U Bet: Over 41.5 (-115) at FanDuel

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