Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Predictions & NFL Picks for 10/08

As mentioned, the Bills have scored no less than 37 points over their last three games, dropping 38 against the Las Vegas Raiders, 37 against the Washington Commanders, and 48 against Miami. We like the Bills as -5.5 favorites.

Since Week 1, the Jaguars are averaging just 16 points per game. They hit 23 last week but scored nine in Week 2 and 17 at home against the Houston Texans. 

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has played OK this season but hasn’t garnered much statistical production. 

He’s completing 67.1% of his passes for 945 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions. He’s averaging just 6.6 yards per attempt with an average depth of target of just 7.2. There have been some drop issues with his receivers, but overall, this offense has struggled. 

Defensively, the Jaguars cannot pressure opposing quarterbacks. Edge rusher Josh Allen has played well, including three sacks against the Falcons, but other than that, no one on the team has double-digit pressures. 

The Bills offensive line is competent enough to fend off the Jaguars.

Coverage-wise, the Jaguars cornerbacks Darious Williams and Tyson Campbell have played well overall, but minus Patrick Mahomes, they haven’t faced a quarterback like Josh Allen. 

The Bills defense has four players with double-digit pressures and 18 sacks on the season. Linebacker Von Miller will also suit up for this one. 

The Jaguars offensive line has allowed nine sacks this season, and Cam Robinson is in his first game back after suspension.

For the first of our Bills vs. Jaguars predictions, we expect the Bills defense to hammer Lawrence here while the Bills offense remains one of the best in the league. 

With our first NFL pick, take the Bills -5.5. 

⭐ Best ATS Pick: Bills -5.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Bills vs. Jaguars Moneyline Best Bet

Getting plus NFL odds here, we like the Texans moneyline at +105 on the road in an upset. 

There’s certainly a path for a Jaguars upset here, but we like Bills (-250) at Caesars. It would involve the offensive line doing enough to keep Lawrence upright and for him to pass the ball downfield on a weakened Bills secondary with Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk at his disposal. Interestingly enough, Lawrence has had success passing downfield. He’s complying 53.3% of his passes for 225 yards and three touchdowns on passes that travel more than 20+ yards downfield. Still, it’s hard to say he’ll be able to take advantage here against this pass rush. 

⭐ Best ML Pick: Bills (-250) at Caesars

If Lawrence can pass downfield successfully, our NFL Week 5 predictions above could be in trouble. But with his struggles, we like  the under of 48.5 (-115) at FanDuel.

However, we have seen minimal offensive production from the Jaguars through four weeks. While we’ve seen a lot from the Bills, the Jaguars coverage unit is good enough to keep secondary receivers like Gabe Davis in check. 

There is also a human element to this, which includes overseas travel, which could also hamper the Bills and their 34.8 points per game. 

For the third of our NFL picks, we’ll lean under 48.5 here. The Bills win this one, 27-20. 

⭐ Best O/U Bet: Under 48.5 (-110) at FanDuel

⭐ CLICK HERE to bet on the Bills vs. Jaguars game! ⭐