Kentucky Derby 2023: Should You Bet on Horses Trained By Todd Pletcher & Brad Cox?

Between them, trainers Todd Pletcher and Brad Cox are expected to have six or more horses in the 2023 Kentucky Derby starting gate, based on the final Derby points leaderboard. That’s at least 30 percent of the Derby field.

In a way, that’s not surprising. Pletcher and Cox have combined to win the Eclipse Award as thoroughbred racing’s top trainer 10 times, including each of the last three years. They’ve combined to win more than 7,500 career races and dominated this year’s Kentucky Derby prep races.

But does that mean you should wager on their horses on the Kentucky Derby betting sites the first Saturday in May? Those numbers tell a somewhat different story.

Todd Pletcher’s Strong Hand

It’s hard to make it into the Kentucky Derby field, much less win it. Yet, Pletcher, 55, has started 62 horses in the Kentucky Derby, by far the most of any trainer in the race’s nearly 150-year storied history. 

Those 62 starts have yielded two wins, two seconds and four thirds. From a betting standpoint, that’s an extremely low return on investment.  

Pletcher’s two victories were in 2010 with Super Saver (8-1) and 2017 with Always Dreaming (9-2 favorite). 

Last year, he started three horses in the Derby: Mo Donegal finished fifth, Charge It 17th and Pioneer of Medina 19th. While Mo Donegal went on to win the Belmont Stakes (one of the trainer’s four Belmont victories), Pletcher has not been a significant factor in the Run for the Roses in recent years.

Pletcher’s last Derby starter to hit the board was Audible, who finished third in 2018. His horses are 0-for-10 hitting the board since then, and all except Mo Donegal finished eighth or worse.

Check out TwinSpires' $200 Sign Up Bonus For the Kentucky Derby!!

But Pletcher has never held as strong a Derby hand as this year. The native Texan not only trains morning-line favorite Forte, but also Blue Grass Stakes winner Tapit Trice, the likely second choice in the betting. Throw in Kingsbarns, the winner of the Louisiana Derby, and it’s a powerful trifecta. Pletcher also trains Major Dude, who is 24th on the points list and could get into the Derby field with a few defections.

Forte may be the most accomplished starter Pletcher has brought into the world’s most famous horse race. The stretch-running dark bay colt has won six of seven career races, including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and earlier this month the Florida Derby, rallying furiously down the stretch after starting from a difficult outside post. 

Pletcher called Forte’s Florida Derby performance “spectacular,’’ adding, “We’re fortunate to be in the position we’re in right now.’’ 

He’s also fortunate that his Derby entrants have different running styles. A hot early pace will benefit Forte and Tapit’s Trice, who will be rallying from behind. Slow early fractions work best for Kingsbarns, who figures to be forwardly placed and could be the Derby pacesetter.

No Thrill of Victory for Brad Cox

Cox, 43, is younger than Pletcher and grew up in Louisville, about two blocks from Churchill Downs.

His Kentucky Derby sample size is considerably smaller. Cox has started five horses in the Kentucky Derby and has one victory with an asterisk. Bettors who backed his horses with win wagers have yet to cash in.

In 2021, Cox’s long shot Mandaloun crossed the finish line second and his betting favorite Essential Quality fourth. More than nine months later, first-place finisher Medina Spirit was disqualified due to a positive drug test and Mandaloun declared the winner. For Cox, it was a bittersweet victory. For bettors of Mandaloun, it was just bitter, since the belated decision did not alter the pari-mutuel payoffs.

“It’s not how you want to win the Derby,’’ Cox told reporters after Mandaloun was declared the winner. “There was really no thrill of victory. It’s great and everything, but we’d obviously like to win it to experience all that comes with winning the Derby.’’

Like Pletcher, Cox had three starters in last year’s race and all were well-beaten. Tawny Port was seventh, Zozos 10th and Cyberknife 18th.

This year, Cox is likely have three or four starters in the Derby field: Angel of Empire, Hit Show, Verifying and possibly Jace’s Road. 

Angel of Empire has the most impressive resume of the four, rallying from off the pace to win both the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. Hit Show and Verifying both finished second in their most recent prep races. Jace’s Road is 21st on the Derby points leaderboard and needs only one defection to make the field.

Check out FanDuel's No Sweat Bet Kentucky Derby Offer!!

One Trainer Missing

Pletcher and Cox had a stranglehold on this year’s Derby preps, combining to win 15 races on the Road to the Derby series, including most of the significant ones: Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby and Blue Grass Stakes (Pletcher) and Risen Star and Arkansas Derby (Cox). 

They’ve also benefited from the absence of trainer Bob Baffert from the Kentucky Derby scene. Baffert, who has won the Kentucky Derby a record six times (seven if Medina Spirit is included), is in the final year of a two-year suspension from Churchill Downs, handed down after Medina Spirit’s disqualification due to a positive post-race drug test.

Baffert horses on the Derby trail had to be transferred to another barn before the end of February to be eligible to compete in this year’s Derby and only one, long shot Reincarnate, has enough points to reach the starting gate.

Baffert horses will be eligible to return to the Derby next year. Regardless, it’s more than likely that Pletcher and Cox will be back again with several formidable entries of their own.  

As for this year’s Derby field, Pletcher and Cox have both quantity and quality. Pletcher will likely have the top two horses to beat. But based on history, that hasn’t always translated into a winning payoff for bettors.