Merriman: Bills Will Beat Tampa Bay; 'Josh Allen Will Have a Day'

Former NFL Pro Bowler Shawne Merriman returns to give his upcoming picks and discuss the key storylines to help with your NFL betting.

This week, we’re highlighting the New England Patriots’ Monday Night Football win over the Buffalo Bills, the Los Angeles’ Chargers comeback and what it’s like to play football in the cold.

Gambling.com: The New England Patriots earned a 14-10 win over the Buffalo Bills while throwing the ball just three times. What were your thoughts on the weather and how it affected the teams’ game plans?

Shawne Merriman: It brought back some crazy memories like when I played there. I saw the pregame, and I was like, ‘Damn good thing they got great fans in Buffalo.’ The fans make the weather all right, but it was horrendous. It was difficult.

We used to practice in the dome sometimes in Buffalo, and they would open the doors just to make it as cold as possible in the dome while we're practicing to get used to that cold. So I saw those conditions, and I knew Buffalo was going to be OK. I know New England has some cold-weather games, but I knew it was gonna be an uphill battle because Buffalo has been struggling with the run game, and that’s New England’s bread and butter. They got some really good backs. And they play the short game when it comes to passing, so that game was built for the Patriots to win.

Ground and Pound in Pass Happy League

GDC: The league is pass-happy now, but we saw the Patriots win a game after attempting just three passes. Is it surprising to see that kind of strategy work in the NFL?

SM: No. We talk about (New England coach) Bill Belichick, nothing is out of the question. Absolutely nothing. He will do exactly what they need to do to win the ballgame. I was not surprised. Everyone made a big deal, but how can you make a big deal? Nothing surprises me when it comes to him. Zero.

GDC: What’s it like as a defender knowing you are facing a team who is set on only running the ball?

SM: People talk about it gets hard to throw when it gets to those conditions, but let me tell you, when it's that cold out there in those weather conditions, those pads and helmet-to-helmet hits and shoulder pads are just as hard. I mean, it feels like a brick-on-brick out there. And when they run the ball, you can see it was starting to be demoralizing a little bit because they just lined up and ran the ball. There’s nothing worse for a defense than somebody just lining up and running the ball down your throat. That is the absolute worst thing that can happen.

Chargers Re-Ignited

GDC: Your other former team, the Los Angeles Chargers, recorded a bounce-back win over the Cincinnati Bengals. What did you like out of their performance?

SM: They let them back in the game after being up 24-0, but I’ll say this: The Chargers last year or two or three years ago would have lost that game. That’s when you know this is a different year. New coaches with new attitudes and new player morale. Everything is different with that team. Two or three years ago, they would have lost that game.

Eagles, Dolphins — Who’s Legit?

GDC: The Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins are now 6-7 after their slow starts. Are you buying into their comebacks?

SM: I’m buying in more into the Dolphins than the Eagles. I like the Dolphins because they put together really good game plans and are playing tough football.

Philadelphia (quarterback) Gardner Minshew is exciting. He gets you amped up and he’s fun to watch, but I have to see him do that consistently before I buy-in to what’s going on there.

Now, they say Jalen Hurts will come back and be the starter but because Minshew has so much hype, the second Jalen Hurts has a couple of bad throws, incompletions or turnovers, they’re going to be screaming Minshew’s name. That’s what’s going to happen.

Lions Off the Schneid

GDC: The Detroit Lions got their first win, beating the Minnesota Vikings. You’ve been on them saying they would get one. What can that do for the confidence of the team and first-year head coach Dan Campbell?

SM: They just need that light, man. That’s it. It’s so easy to tuck it away when there’s no hope for playoffs or no opportunity. It can be miserable coming to work every day.

The only reason I still feel that they’re still playing hard is for Dan Campbell. No other reason. I think they believe in him and are rallying behind him. They’ve bought into him, even though they haven’t been winning, and they want him to stay there because trust me, the coaches you want gone after the season, you’ve already tucked it in because you know they’re going to be out the door. Then you feel like, OK, I’m not doing anything extra if this guy is gone. But they want Dan Campbell in that building.

Rams Rebound

GDC: The Los Angeles Rams had a dominant showing against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Can that get the team back on track?

SM: This goes back to quarterback Matthew Stafford, and I think the world of Matthew Stafford. But can he beat the good teams that are above .500? That’s really been his knock. Before I buy into anything he’s doing or the Rams are doing, I need to see them beat quality teams.

On to the Picks

Here are Shawne’s picks for the week. All moneyline odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+140) at Minnesota Vikings (-160)

SM: I’m going with the Vikings. I think they have to be pissed off after losing to the Lions. It’s a toss-up, but they’ve got to be pissed off.

Baltimore Ravens (+120) at Cleveland Browns (-140)

SM: Ravens. Lamar Jackson also struggled a couple of games the year he won MVP – maybe not as bad, but he did. We’re just so used to seeing Lamar do things out of this world that if he struggles for a couple of games, it becomes a big thing. Look, there’s 17 games, and if you struggle for four of them, that’s not a bad season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+320) at Tennessee Titans (-425)

SM: Titans. They’ll do exactly what they need to do. The problem is Derrick Henry is gone and Adrian Peterson is gone, too.

Las Vegas Raiders (+340) at Kansas City Chiefs (-450)

SM: Chiefs. They just have too much firepower right now. What we don’t talk about is the defense. We have all these explosive offenses, but in the years they were good, (defensive end) Frank Clark and those guys were getting after people.

They’re playing great defense now and running the ball, so everything else is a cherry on top. That’s what they’re made of. The defense is playing a lot more aggressively and getting turnovers and putting pressure on the quarterback. They weren’t doing that before.

New Orleans Saints (-235) at New York Jets (+190)

SM: That dislocated finger or whatever (New Orleans quarterback) Taysom Hill has is not a week thing – he will be dealing with that for the rest of the year. That doesn’t go away. But I still can’t pick the Jets. I just can’t. Somebody will have to come in and step up for the Saints.

Dallas Cowboys (-200) at Washington Football Team (+170)

SM: After the bye, Washington has come out strong and been a different team. I’m going with Washington this week.

Atlanta Falcons (+120) at Carolina Panthers (-140)

SM: I’m going Panthers. I expect quarterback Cam Newton to bounce back. Anytime he loses a game, he’s great with bouncing back. After he gets criticized, he always answers; he never stays in a slump. He’ll have some bad games or whatever, but I expect him to bounce back.

Seattle Seahawks (-350) at Houston Texans (+270)

SM: I’m going to go with the Seahawks.

Detroit Lions (+270) at Denver Broncos (-350)

SM: Broncos. I think the Lions will win another game this year, but it just won’t be against the Broncos.

New York Giants (+350) at Los Angeles Chargers (-475)

SM: I’m taking the Chargers all day. I’m going to call this game the cookout. They’re going to cook them. It’ll be a cookout.

San Francisco 49ers (-125) at Cincinnati Bengals (+105)

SM: With (Cincinnati quarterback) Joe Burrow’s finger, playing and being effective are two different things. Anybody that has to hand the ball off with their opposite hand, it’s a pretty bad deal. But I’m still going to go with them.

Buffalo Bills (+150) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-170)

SM: I’m taking the Bills. I thought they played a tough game and smart game against the Patriots. I really do. I think Josh Allen will have a day against Tampa.

Chicago Bears (+460) at Green Bay Packers (-650)

SM: I’m taking the Packers. Chicago has already tucked it in, and I think head coach Matt Nagy is out the door. Dan Campbell will stay there longer than Matt Nagy will.

Los Angeles Rams (+105) at Arizona Cardinals (-125)

SM: I’m taking the Cardinals. Until the Rams show they can win against great teams, I just don’t trust them yet. We know they will beat all the teams they should be. I think they’ve only beaten one or two teams this year that are over .500.