NCAAF Championship Picks: Best Underdog Bets & College Football Week 14 Upsets

⭐  Best Bet: Louisville Moneyline (+105) at BetMGM

Much of the recent College Football debate has centered around Florida State and what to do with the Seminoles. It's clear Florida State is a different team after losing starting quarterback Jordan Travis to injury, but backup quarterback Tate Rodemaker did enough in wins over North Alabama and Florida to keep the Seminoles undefeated. Now, Florida State will look to strengthen its College Football Playoff resume with a win over Louisville to keep its undefeated record intact and claim an ACC title. 

Most of the line movement has gone to the Cardinals with Louisville going from +4.5 to +2.5, and we're going to follow the money and take Louisville +2.5 (-110) at BetMGM. Florida State was not impressive last week against a Florida team that also played a backup quarterback, with the Seminoles falling behind 12-0 before having to rally to keep their postseason hopes alive. Florida State's offensive numbers have fallen off without Travis, and the Seminoles gained just 224 yards against Florida and were 4 for 14 on third-down conversions. 

Florida State won't have the luxury of going up against an anemic offense this week. Louisville averages 30.9 points per game and ranks 20th in the country in yards per pass (8.7) and 38th in yards per carry (4.6). There are also online rumors circulating that Rodemaker could miss this game due to injury, which would mean Florida State would be forced to go to third-string quarterback Brock Glenn. Against Florida, Glenn briefly played after Rodemaker left due to a hit to the head. 

We are confident the Cardinals have enough to pull off the upset against a Florida State team that is still recovering from Travis' injury.

Best Bet: Louisville Moneyline (+105) at BetMGM

CLICK HERE to bet on the Lousiville vs. Florida State game!

⭐  Best Bet: Alabama Moneyline (+168) at FanDuel

The game of the week is the SEC Championship between No. 1 Georgia and No. 8 Alabama, with the winner likely securing a spot in the College Football Playoff. Georgia would assuredly be in with a victory, while Alabama would have a strong resume to earn a spot in the final four. 

One of our favorite upset picks this week is Alabama Moneyline (+168) at FanDuel. The Crimson Tide have the athletes and personnel to match up with a team of Georgia's caliber. According to Pro Football Focus, their secondary ranks second in coverage, allowing just 6.3 yards per pass, ranking 14th in the country. Alabama also has one of the more dynamic pass games, ranking third in yards per pass (9.9).

Georgia's defense is also not as stout as the two past editions that led the Bulldogs to national titles. Georgia ranks just 48th in yards allowed per rush (3.9) and gives up 116.5 rushing yards a game as opposing offenses have consistently found success outside the tackles against the Bulldogs. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe also presents issues for Georgia. On the season, Milroe has passed for 2,526 yards and 21 touchdowns to just six interceptions, while also tallying 439 yards rushing and 12 scores. He'll be the dual-threat quarterback the Bulldogs have faced this season, and his ability to extend plays and create should be enough to give the Crimson Tide a chance. 

Best Betting Pick: Alabama Moneyline (+168) at FanDuel

CLICK HERE to bet on the Alabama vs. Georgia game!

⭐  Best Bet: SMU Moneyline (+145) at BetMGM

Tulane has been one of the top Group of Five teams this season, going 11-1 with the Green Wave's only defeat coming to Ole Miss. But we feel SMU is also a live underdog in the American Athletic Championship on Saturday against Tulane. We're going to look to back the Mustangs as one of our top moneyline underdogs. 

We like SMU Moneyline (+145) at BetMGM. The Mustangs have won their last eight games to close the season and have done so in dominant fashion, outscoring their opponents 367-136. SMU is strong on both sides of the ball, ranking sixth in the country in scoring offense (39.4) and 18th in scoring defense (19.3). Quarterback Preston Stone has been productive, throwing for 3,197 yards and 28 touchdowns to just six interceptions for a 161.3 rating. The Mustangs rank 19th in passing yards per game and also excel at defending the pass, limiting teams to 6 yards per pass attempt - sixth in the country. 

Tulane features a run-based offense with the 16th-highest run play percentage in the country (59.5%), but the Mustangs are also strong against the ground game. SMU ranks 20th in yards allowed per rush (3.4) and 27th in rushing yards allowed per game (120). 

Considering the strengths on both sides of the ball for SMU, we believe they are a live underdog against Tulane. 

Best Bet: SMU Moneyline (+145) at BetMGM

CLICK HERE to bet on the SMU vs. Tulane game!