New Mexico St. vs. Fresno St. Prediction, Picks & New Mexico Bowl Odds

According to ESPN BET, New Mexico State is a 3.5-point fave with a total of 51.0 points. The Aggies (10-4; 11-3 ATS) are coming off a 49-35 defeat against Liberty in the Conference USA Championship Game. New Mexico State put an end to its eight-game winning streak and failed to cover a 10.5-point spread. 

We’ll start our college parlay picks with the Aggies even though they allowed a staggering 712 total yards to the Flames, who are undefeated in 2023. New Mexico’s defense did a good job in the regular season, and the Aggies have allowed more than 20 points only three times over their previous 11 games overall. 

The Aggies are 36^th in the country in scoring defense (21.8 points allowed per game) and 57^th in scoring offense (28.7). They tally 202.7 rushing yards per game (12^th in the country) and 5.8 yards per carry (4^th), so we are expecting New Mexico State to dominate Fresno State on the ground. 

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Fresno State (8-4; 4-8 ATS) ranks 56^th in scoring defense (24.6) and 99^th in rushing yards allowed (168.2 per game). The Bulldogs have dropped three straight games to San Jose State 42-18, New Mexico 25-17, and San Diego State 33-18. Their run defense has been awful during that stretch, allowing 313 yards to SJSU, 345 yards to New Mexico, and 226 to SDSU. 

The Bulldogs have surrendered 400-plus all-purpose yards in each of their last six outings. It’s another reason to add New Mexico State to your college football best bets. Furthermore, Fresno State will miss LB Raymond Scott and OT Hayden Pulis, who entered the transfer portal. 

Keep your eyes on New Mexico State signal-caller Diego Pavia, who’s thrown for 2,915 yards, 26 touchdowns, and eight interceptions through 14 appearances so far this season. Pavia leads the Aggies in carries (158), rushing yards (851), and rushing touchdowns (6). He’ll be a key factor in the Aggies’ drive to success, and we are taking New Mexico State -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM.  

⭐ Recommended Bet: Jacksonville State -3 Points (-110) at ESPN BET

CFB Pick: ⭐ Jacksonville State Over 33.5 Points (+130) at ESPN BET

We continue our New Mexico Bowl 2023 predictions with the over on the total. Fresno State will struggle to contain New Mexico State’s ground game, and the Aggies will move the chains with ease. The Aggies’ receiving corps is dangerous, too, and Trent Hudson leads the way with 36 catches for 571 yards and ten touchdowns. 

The Bulldogs will try to keep the pace on the back of their passing offense. Mikey Keene threw for 2,596 yards, 21 touchdowns, and nine interceptions in the regular season, while wideouts Erik Brooks and Jalen Moss combined for 1,341 yards and ten touchdowns. Malik Sherrod is tallying 5.8 yards per carry, so the Bulldogs have weapons to hurt the Aggies and add to the scoreboard. 

The total has gone over in four of Fresno State’s last six games overall and three of its previous five showings as an underdog. Also, the over is 13-5 in New Mexico State’s last 18 outings as a favorite. We’ll follow these betting trends and round up our free college football picks with Over 51.0 Points (-110) at ESPN BET. 

⭐ Recommended Bet: Jacksonville State Over 33.5 Points (+130) at ESPN BET

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