NFL Week 1 Odds, Predictions & Free NFL Picks For All 16 Games

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023, 8:20 p.m.
• TV: NBC
• My Best Bet: Detroit Lions +7 (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook

What better way to start the NFL betting season than by picking a side in the first game of the 2023-24 NFL regular season featuring the Super Bowl LVII champion Kansas City Chiefs? As part of the first-game festivities, the Chiefs will unveil its Super Bowl LVII championship banner and have an on-field pre-game presentation. 

Then it’s on to the football, where I’m actually going to fade the defending champs. Playing in the NFL kickoff game is a massive step up for a Detroit Lions team that hasn’t been in the spotlight as much over the last two decades. But the team has trended up from being a traditional bottom-dweller in the NFC standings to now becoming the favorite to win the NFC North Division at +155 on FanDuel Sportsbook.  

One reason I’m high on Detroit is it managed to bolster its roster on both sides of the ball. The Lions averaged the fifth-most points per game last season at 26.6 and managed to add more offensive weapons to help quarterback Jared Goff. Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs was taken at No. 12; his speed should give the Lions another dimension out of the backfield. The team’s second-round pick, Iowa tight end Sam LaPorta, also gives Goff another receiving option. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Picks on the Lions vs. Chiefs Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

Detroit also addressed its defensive woes by signing cornerback Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, who tied for the NFL lead with six interceptions in just 12 games. The Lions also signed defensive backs Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley in an attempt to bolster a secondary that allowed the most passing yards per attempt last season (7.5). 

The Lions were the second-best team against the spread last season, going 12-5. It will be interesting to see how Detroit performs now that the team will have greater expectations. But the seven-point spread is a bit too high given the improvements the team has continued to make. Plus, Kansas City is just 10-26 as a favorite of -3.5 or more since November 2020. 

bet365 has +7 still on Detroit - a key number in football - and the standard -110 odds.   

My Best Bet: Detroit Lions +7 (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook

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• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 4:25 p.m. EDT
• TV: FOX
• My Best Bet: Green Bay Packers +1 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

FOX’s Game of the Week features two historic franchises, the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears. For both, it’s a time of transition. Jordan Love is now the Packers' starting quarterback after Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets, and Justin Fields enters his second season as the Bears starting quarterback. 

Traditionally, this has been a spot the Packers have dominated. Green Bay has won 13 of its last 14 games against the Bears and the last eight overall. But overall, last season was a struggle for the Packers who finished 8-9 and missed out on a playoff spot with a Week 18 loss to the Lions. It came as a result of an average season for Rodgers, who threw for the fewest passing yards in a full healthy season (3,695) and has the second-most interceptions of his career (12). 

⭐ Place Your NFL Picks on the Bears vs. Packers Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

Any bet on the Packers is done with the thought Love is ready to take over and be a solid starter in his first full season. There were some solid moments in sparing action last season. Against Philadelphia, he completed 6 of 9 passes for 113 yards and a touchdown, which was his only substantial game action of the season. Love could benefit from two seasons of sitting behind Rodgers and in head coach Matt LaFleur’s system, and there should be some rejuvenation around the team with the excitement of Love and a new era. 

Since becoming the Packers’ coach, LaFleur has been a solid coach to back as an underdog. He’s 13-4 against the spread as an underdog, including 12-4 with Rodgers and 1-0 with Love. I don’t mind backing the Packers around Love’s potential breakout and LaFleur’s history as an underdog coach. 

My Best Bet: Green Bay Packers +1 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 1:00 p.m. EDT
• TV: CBS
• My Best Bet: Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

There might not be a team with a bigger range of outcomes than the Cleveland Browns. If Deshaun Watson returns to form as an elite quarterback, the Browns will be legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Defensively, they're as loaded as anyone with Myles Garrett still performing as one of the top pass-rushers in the league. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the Bengals vs. Browns Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

Cincinnati quarterback Joe Burrow has yet to be confirmed as the team's starter as he deals with a calf injury. Burrow suffered the injury more than a month ago during practice and was sidelined for the preseason and much of the practices. But Cincinnati got some encouraging signs with Burrow returning to practice this week. Still, he has yet to be confirmed as the team's starter and it's worth questioning how healthy he will be. 

Given the Burrow concerns, we like the Browns here. 

My Best Bet:  Cleveland Browns -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 1:00 p.m. EDT
• TV: FOX
• My Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook

The Minnesota Vikings are set to be perennial contenders this season, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the arduous task of replacing Tom Brady. Tampa Bay named Baker Mayfield the team's starting quarterback for the start of the regular season and his veteran experience should allow the team to start with some cohesion early on. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the Buccaneers vs. Vikings Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

Minnesota was excellent last season, winning the division with a 13-4 record, but only two of those wins were by more than one score. Considering the team's recent penchant for playing close games, we will take Tampa and the +6 spread. 

My Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 1:00 p.m. EDT
• TV: CBS
• My Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +3 (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook

The Tennessee Titans could be one of those teams that are undervalued early on based on how last season ended. Tennessee ended the 2022-23 NFL regular season by losing its final seven games, which didn't highlight how well the team performed earlier in the season before injuries struck the roster. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the Titans vs. Saints Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

If Tennesse can duplicate its early success from a year ago, there's value on them early on, especially against a Saints team that will have to work in new quarterback, Derek Carr. Tennesse coach Mike Vrabel is also worth betting on when his teams are underdogs of three points or more. In those games, Vrable is 22-9-1 against the spread. 

My Best Bet: Tennessee Titans +3 (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 1:00 p.m. EDT
• TV: FOX
• My Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It's hard to get excited for the Carolina Panthers based on what they displayed during the preseason. Sure, it was just the preseason, but the fact Carolina was routinely outplayed doesn't make us confident about its chances in Week 1. It's not surprising that it could take new coach Frank Reich and his team to get acclimated to each other, especially with rookie quarterback Bryce Young. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the Panthers vs. Falcons Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

A solid reason to back the Falcons in this spot is that Reich is 0-5 straight up in Week 1 games and also failed to cover in any of those contests. We expect that trend to continue this season. 

My Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 1:00 p.m. EDT
• TV: FOX
• My Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +5 (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook

When it comes to betting on the Indianapolis Colts, much of it will depend on the progression of rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. Coming out of college, Richardson was one of the most dynamic athletes and drew comparisons to Pro Bowl quarterback Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills given his arm strength and athleticism. With Richardson still an unknown, there's high upside here given his physical traits. There will not be much film on him, which should put Jacksonville at a preparation disadvantage. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Picks on the Colts vs. Jaguars Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

Considering the Jaguars' defense ranked 26th in Defensive Value Adjusted Over Average last season, we see big-game potential from Richardson and the Colts, making a +5 bet a valuable option. 

My Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +5 (-110) FanDuel Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 1:00 p.m. EDT
• TV: FOX
• My Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy is set to start the season after coming off UCL surgery. It's the first time since 2020 that the 49ers enter a season without a quarterback controversy. As it stands, the 49ers have another roster that can contend for a super Bowl title. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the 49ers vs. Steelers Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

The only game Purdy lost as a starter was in the NFC Championship to the Philadelphia Eagles when he was knocked out early with an arm injury. Otherwise, we haven't seen the 49ers lose with Purdy. With the 49ers currently at -2.5 favorites, we like that number considering it's under the key football number of three.

 Look for Purdy and the 49ers to continue their winning ways. 

My Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 4:25 p.m. EDT
• TV: CBS
• My Best Bet: Denver Broncos -3.5 (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook

It's a new era for the Denver Broncos with Sean Payton taking over as the team's head coach. Payton was brought in to reinvigorate Russell Wilson's career after the Denver quarterback struggled mightily under Nathaniel Hackett. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the Raiders vs. Broncos Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

Las Vegas hopes new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo can be the franchise quarterback for the team after the Raiders cut Derek Carr. We lean towards Denver and the excitement around Payton's arrival. We feel confident Payton turning the team around is likely to pay dividends early on in the season. 

My Best Bet: Denver Broncos -3.5 (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 1:00 p.m. EDT
• TV: FOX
• My Best Bet: Washington Commanders -7 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

It's hard to see a way for the Arizona Cardinals to be competitive this season. Starting quarterback Kyler Murray is set to miss the first four games of the season as he recovers from ACL surgery and experienced backup Colt McCoy was released by the team. Arizona traded for career backup Josh Dobbs, which leaves just him and rookie Clayton Tune as the team's quarterback options. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the Commanders vs. Cardinals Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

Dobbs has just two career starts in six NFL seasons, while Tune is still getting accustomed to being in the NFL during his rookie campaign. New head coach Jonathan Gannon has an uphill climb with the Cardinals this season, and we expect plenty of miscues early on. 

My Best Bet: Washington Commanders -7 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 4:25 p.m. EDT
• TV: CBS
• My Best Bet: Over 51 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Offensive fireworks can be expected between teams with two of the premier young quarterbacks in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa has excelled in the Miami Dolphins offense under head coach Mike McDaniel, while Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert just signed a five-year, $262.5 million contract. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the Dolphins vs. Chargers Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

The Chargers are -3.0-point favorites against the Dolphins, but instead of picking a team, we are going to bank on both offenses lighting up the scoreboard. Currently, the total for this Week 1 game is 51, and we like the over in this matchup. Look for these two pass-happy offenses to look for vertical looks down the field. 

My Best Bet: Over 51 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 4:25 p.m. EDT
• TV: CBS
• My Best Bet: New England Patriots +4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Matt Patricia going from New England to Philadelphia may actually help the Patriots. As offensive coordinator last season, the Patriots saw their offensive production dip with the team scoring 98 fewer points and recording 660 fewer yards. Now, Patricia is on the Eagles staff as a defensive assistant. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Picks on the Eagles vs. Patriots Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

Philadelphia is one of the betting favorites in the Super Bowl market, but there tends to be a hangover for the previous season's Super Bowl loser. Those teams are just 4-18 against the spread in Week 1 the next year, so with the Patriots getting more than a field goal at home, we like their spread. 

My Best Bet: New England Patriots +4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 4:25 p.m. EDT
• TV: FOX
• My Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks -5 (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook

The Los Angeles Rams have looked abysmal in the preseason, losing the three games by margins of 41, 17 and 17 points. It's fair to wonder how much getting blown out in the preseason actually matters, but the Rams are a team on the decline after their Super Bowl victory from two years ago and a 5-12 campaign from last season. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the Rams vs. Seahawks Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

There's also the injury concerns for Los Angeles wide receiver Cooper Kupp, who is still dealing with a hamstring ailment. If he can't go, the Rams' ability to move the ball will take a hit.  Seattle will be one of the favorites to win the NFC West, while the Rams could soon find themselves tanking for the No. 1 pick. 

My Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks -5 (-110) at bet365 Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023, 8:20 p.m. EDT
• TV: FOX
• My Best Bet: New York Giants +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

For the marquee Sunday Night football game, we are going to look at the New York Giants. Brian Daboll exceeded expectations as an underdog coach in his first season leading the Giants, going 10-2 against the spread as an underdog and 6-5-1 straight up. With the Giants getting more than a field goal against the rival Cowboys, we like the Giants here. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the Cowboys vs. Giants Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

Divisional rivalry games tend to be closer affairs, and with the Giants' history of performing well as underdogs under Daboll, we will gladly take the +3.5 on the Giants at home.  

My Best Bet: New York Giants +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 11, 2023, 8:15 p.m. EDT
• TV: FOX
• My Best Bet: Under 46.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Plenty of the hype will be around Aaron Rodgers' debut as the quarterback of the New York Jets as they prepare to take on one of the Super Bowl favorites in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are slight road favorites as -2.5-point favorites, but instead of targeting a spread or moneyline side, we are going to look at the total for the first Monday Night Football game of the 2023-24 NFL regular season. 

⭐ Place Your NFL Best Bets on the Bills vs. Jets Week 1 Matchup NOW! ⭐

The betting total is currently at 46.5 for this game at FanDuel Sportsbook, and we like the under. Rodgers' offenses have traditionally been one of the slower in terms of pace. It's not uncommon for him to run down the play clock at the line of scrimmage as he attempts to read the defense and know what they're in. Longer time between plays results in less plays and a lower-scoring game. 

Also, don't be surprised if there are some offensive hiccups for the Jets in the first game of the regular season. Questions still remain for the Jets' offensive line and they will be tested against Buffalo's front seven. Expect New York to lean on its defense in the opener, which is one of the big reasons we like the under.

My Best Bet: Under 46.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook