Phillies vs. Braves Predictions, MLB Player Props & MLB Picks 09-19-23

Philadelphia beat Atlanta 7-1 in Monday’s opener, recording its fifth win in ten games. The Phillies mashed five home runs on the night, as Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Johan Rojas, Nick Castellanos, and Bryce Harper all went yard. Philadelphia has slugged 31 homers so far this month, and Schwarber, Realmuto, and Trea Turner have combined for 19 of those 31 dingers. 

On the other side, the Braves have hit 36 round-trippers in September. Matt Olson is having a monster month, going 23-for-64 with nine home runs and 17 RBI, while Ronald Acuna Jr. has gone 21-for-64 with seven dingers and 15 RBI. However, Atlanta is riding a four-game losing streak and will have to step up Tuesday when Spencer Strider takes the mound. 

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Phillies vs. Braves Betting Trends: 

• The Braves are 6-2 in the last eight games against the Phillies 
• Philadelphia is 6-13 in its previous 19 road tilts vs. Atlanta 
• Spencer Strider is 7-0 in seven career appearances vs. Phillies

Last Wednesday, Strider tortured the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. He fanned nine across seven innings while surrendering just one earned run on four hits and two walks in Atlanta’s 4-1 victory. Cristopher Sanchez, who’ll be on the bump tonight for the Phillies, pitched 7.1 frames last Wednesday, piling up ten strikeouts and surrendering four earned runs on eight hits and a walk. Austin Riley took him deep in the top of the first, while Ronald Acuna went 3-for-5 with a run scored. 

Expecting Strider to extend his dominance is my top MLB prediction today. He’s 3-0 with a shiny 1.89 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 27/3 K/BB ratio in three starts (19 innings pitched) against the Phillies this season. The 24-year-old righty has registered nine or more strikeouts in each but one of his last five starts, so give me Spencer Strider over 8.5 K’s (-152) at FanDuel. 

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Now, here are my best Braves vs. Phillies MLB picks for Tuesday night. I’m going with the hosts to come out on top behind their ace and would stay away from the totals. Instead, I have a pair of MLB player props among my best MLB predictions today. 

• ⭐ Braves -1.5 (-105) at BetMGM: The Braves have struggled against left-handed pitchers over the last couple of weeks (.576 OPS and 52 wRC+), and that will change sooner rather than later. Atlanta has been destroying the southpaws for most of the season and holds a 134 OPS+ versus the lefties in 2023. The Braves will be fired up to stop their four-game slide, so I’m backing them to beat the runline at -105 with BetMGM. 
• ⭐ Spencer Strider over 8.5 strikeouts (-152) at FanDuel: I’ve already mentioned how dominant Strider has been against the Phillies thus far. He also leads the majors in strikeouts (259), K/9 (13.8), and FIP (2.83). He’s accounted for nine or more K’s in 12 of his last 15 starts while tallying exactly nine strikeouts in each of his previous three dates with the Phillies in 2023. 
• ⭐ Austin Riley over 0.5 RBI (+160) at Caesars: Over the last seven days, Riley has slashed .318/.407/.636 with two home runs and five RBI across 27 plate appearances. Last Wednesday, he notched three RBI off Cristopher Sanchez, so I’m looking at Riley to add another one at +160 with Caesars. Riley boasts a 146 OPS+ against the southpaws this season, racking up ten dingers and 25 RBI in 119 at-bats. 

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