Thursday Night Football Picks: Broncos vs. Chiefs Player Props & NFL Picks

How to Watch Broncos vs. Chiefs

• Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
• When: Thursday October 12, 2023 at 8:15 pm EDT
• Where to Watch: Fox
• Spread: Broncos (-10.5) vs. Chiefs (+10.5)
• Over/Under: 48

Right out of the gate, this matchup could be reminiscent of the less-than-stellar Thursday night games we've seen in recent years.

On one end, there's the Broncos, who've had difficulty defending against both aerial and ground assaults. Their defense has been leaky, to the extent that they made the Bears resemble an offensive powerhouse in Week 4.

Conversely, Patrick Mahomes stands out as a quarterback with exceptional precision. Furthermore, the Chiefs' defense is performing exceptionally well, with their secondary ranking fifth in limiting fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.

While divisional matches can be unpredictable, the data strongly suggests a significant win for Kansas City. However, it's worth noting the Chiefs' inconsistency in meeting point spreads. So, approaching this game with absolute certainty might not be the best strategy.

Even so the Chiefs are massive favorites at -535 for the win.

The Chiefs are betting favorites in this Week 6 matchup, with the spread sitting at -10.5.

The Broncos vs. Chiefs Over/Under is 48 total points for the game.

Broncos vs. Chiefs  Betting Trends

• The average point total in Kansas City's games this year is 49.0, 1.5 more than this matchup's over/under.
• The Chiefs have covered the spread three times in five games with a set spread.
• The Broncos have not won a game against the spread this season (0-4-1).
• The Broncos lost the only game they've played as the underdog this season.

Broncos vs. Chiefs: Under 49 (+110) at BetMGM

While many anticipate the Chiefs' victory over the Broncos, the margin is uncertain. Often, the Chiefs win by a small gap, as witnessed against Denver and others. Last season, they beat the Broncos by just nine points in two games. 

Despite the over/under leaning high, Kansas City hasn't often surpassed it this season. Their offensive prowess isn't as commanding recently, with health concerns around players like Mahomes and Kelce. 

The Broncos' offense struggles too, with low scores in recent games. Given these factors and the short preparation time for both teams, our prediction is Under 49.5 points.

Damarri Mathis Over 3.5 Tackles (-130) at Draftkings

A closer look quickly reveals why betting on Mathis is a wise choice. He's achieved this line in every game this season, recording six or more tackles in three of those games. 

Realistically, Mathis' line should be set higher but seizing the opportunity now is a logical move in my book.

Patrick Mahomes is likely to ensure the offense remains active, which could pose challenges for Mathis, especially since he's been a frequent target for rival quarterbacks this season.

Chiefs 24, Broncos 17 at FanDuel

Intriguingly, the Broncos have been competitive against the Chiefs lately. In their past three encounters, Denver has consistently covered the spread.

I'm inclined to reexamine this trend, given that the Chiefs are 2-2 against the spread this season. Divisional matchups often present tougher challenges than other games. 

Additionally, Mahomes hasn't had a flawless start to the season, and there are lingering questions about Travis Kelce's fitness.