UFC Fight Night Prediction: Allen vs. Craig UFC Picks for 11/18
UFC Predictions & Allen vs. Craig Prediction & UFC Odds
- ⭐ Paul Craig by submission (+650) at BetMGM
- ⭐ Either fighter by submission (+140) at FanDuel
- ⭐ Brendan Allen by submission (+230) at DraftKings
UFC fans in North America will have to get on the couch earlier this weekend for a Fight Night card going down in Las Vegas, as Brendan Allen and Paul Craig headline the card.
As usual, we’ve rounded up all the UFC odds from the best online betting sites and put together our UFC predictions.
Craig will step out in the main event for the first time in his UFC career, despite this being his 17th fight under the UFC banner.
The Scot will look to earn his ninth Performance of the Night bonus against Brendan Allen, and he is now +650 at FanDuel to get his 14th career submission.
Allen is, however, eight years younger and a jiu-jitsu wizard in his own way, and the American is now significantly lower to win by submission at +230 with DraftKings.
Let’s take a deeper look at our UFC predictions and UFC best bets for this weekend, including some other notable fights to bet on from the main card.
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Allen vs Craig UFC Odds, Details & Form
After a memorable trip to Madison Square Garden, the UFC is back in Las Vegas with some crucial fights to pay attention to and a much earlier start than usual.
- 🏟 Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- 📅 Date: Saturday, November 18th, 2023
- 🕙 Time: 10pm ET
- 🥊 Main Event: Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig
- 🔥 Top Favorite: Either fighter by submission (+140) at FanDuel
- 📊 Fighter Stats: Brendan Allen 22-5 | Paul Craig 17-6
- 📺 TV Channel: ESPN + PPV
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Paul Craig Form Prior to UFC Fight Night
Craig’s UFC career has gone well under the radar outside of his homeland of the UK. Back home, his talents are regarded as some of the best across the pond, but he has been quite hard done by in the UFC.
In fact, he has the second most submission wins in UFC light heavyweight division history (6) and the second most Performance of the Night bonuses in UFC history (8).
His excellent array of Performance of Night bonuses has seen him collect them by beating former light heavyweight king, Jamahal Hill, and defeat the likes of Nikita Krylov, Vinicius Moreira, Kennedy Nzechukwu, Magomed Ankalaev and Henrique da Silva all by submission. The Scot also earned his eighth last time out with a sensational TKO win over Andre Muniz.
Quite incredibly, only two fights from his 24 professional bouts has gone the distance, meaning he now has 13 of his 17 wins via submission and the other four via KO/TKO.
He has also lost one by submission and four via KO/TKO.This is also only Craig’s second matchup at middleweight in the UFC after his win over Muniz, but that victory did rocket him straight into #13 in the division’s rankings.
Brendan Allen Form Prior to UFC Fight Night
As one of the rising stars of the middleweight division, Allen heads into this fight as one of the most active fighters on the planet since his debut in 2019.
This will be the American's 13th fight in the past four years and he has lost to only the reigning champion, Sean Strickland, and Chris Curtis during this time.
Since that loss to Curtis back in late 2021, Allen has put together a five-fight win streak and collected two Performance of the Night wins by submitting Muniz and Krzysztof Jotko.
He has also managed to beat Sam Alvey with another submission at light heavyweight before returning to 185 and beating Jacob Malkoun.
Just like Craig, Allen has racked up 13 submissions in his career, but with four decision wins and five KO/TKO victories too, the 27-year-old is clearly more well-rounded.
In fact, some of his KO/TKO wins have been sensational, such as his win over Tom Breese in the final 13 seconds of round one back in 2020.
Almeida vs. Lewis UFC Best Bets
We’ve put together the UFC Fight Night best bets and our UFC picks for this weekend from the best online betting sites for UFC odds.
UFC Best Bet #1: Paul Craig by submission (+650) at BetMGM
Given how this is two black belts going head-to-head with one another and how there are 26 submissions from their combined 41 fights, we’re sticking entirely with a submission finish for either man.
In truth, Craig was arguably the best submission specialist up at light heavyweight, as Glover Teixeira retired last year, while everyone else in the top 15 rankings tends to favor wrestling or striking.
Down at middleweight, a win over Allen probably justifies his case as the best jiu-jitsu practitioner at 185 too.
Quite remarkably, Craig has only had his black belt for two years, despite putting together some of the slickest moves on the ground up at 205.
He earned his black belt after beating the recent light heavyweight champion, Jamahal Hill, back in 2021, and he followed this up with another one of his famous triangle chokes over Nikita Krylov nine months later.
In fact, Craig has seven of his 13 submission wins through a triangle choke, including his ridiculous finish over Magomed Ankalaev that saw him force the tap from the former light heavyweight title challenger in the final second of a three-round fight.
⭐ UFC Picks: Paul Craig by submission (+650) at BetMGM
UFC Best Bet #2: Brendan Allen submission in round 1 (+230) at FanDuel
Should the fight end up with Craig on his back, Allen could be in a world of trouble. However, if he can get his moves right on the ground, there’s no doubt he will attempt a submission of his own.
What’s more, Craig is certainly more daring when it comes to trying a submission than Allen, which could leave him exposed.
Allen is way more comfortable on the feet, and the Scot attempts more submissions than most fighters out there, as it is by far his best fighting trait.
Ultimately, all of this could play into the hands of the rising American.
⭐ UFC 293 Picks: Brendan Allen submission in round 1 (+230) at FanDuel
UFC Best Bet #3: Either fighter by submission (+140) at DraftKings
If you’re like us and can’t decide on your UFC picks for either fighter to win by submission because they are so closely-matched on the jiu-jitsu front, you can play it safe with a +140 bet with DraftKings for either fighter to get a tap .
Should this be the case, it will be submission #14 for either Craig or Allen. Ultimately, this fight is likely to be one that ends with a scramble on the ground where either fighter will look to force the tap at the first chance to do so.
It is also a five-round affair, so a few exchanges across the 25 minutes are bound to happen.
⭐ UFC Picks: Either fighter by submission (+140) at DraftKings
Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis Prediction & Final Thoughts
Although the odds and many of the UFC predictions favor Allen, this fight is much closer than people may think.
Craig has been the underdog countless times in his career, and barely any man in the UFC has been able to upset the odds more than him.
The likes of Hill, Muniz and Ankalaev were all heavily favored to beat the Scot, but Craig managed to rack up a finish.
You do, however, have to take into account the form of Allen with his five-fight win streak, and how he is only getting better at 27 years old.
Nevertheless, it’s a bout with two of the best submission artists in the game, so our UFC picks heads towards another tap from one man.
UFC Best Bet: ⭐ Either fighter by submission (+140) at FanDuel
Other Notable Fights for UFC Fight Night Today
Two more submission specialists fight on the main card with Chase Hooper looking to get his 14th win at age just 24 against Jordan Leavitt.
The fight to not go the distance in this one is at -106 at Draftkings with 19 of their combined 32 fights ending before the final bell.
Payton Talbott is the biggest favorite on the card this weekend at -770 to beat Nick Aguirre. He is 6-0 with five finishes via KO/TKO and is now +100 with DraftKings to do so again.
Despite a massive main event to look forward to, a lot of attention at this UFC Fight Night turns to Michael Morales and his 15-0 record.
He meets with Jake Matthews and his 19-6 record, and Matthews has a 3-2 record in his past five fights.
Morales is now +140 at FanDuel to get his 12th KO/TKO from just 16 fights. What’s more, with an unbeaten record at 23, a win here could establish him as arguably the best up-and-coming fighter in the UFC.
As we look forward to another UFC Fight Night, there's another exciting development for sports betting enthusiasts. Back in September, Kentucky launched online sports betting, paving the way for the emergence of new sports betting apps in Kentucky. This opens up a new realm of opportunities for fans and bettors alike. Stay tuned for more updates on this front.
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