UFC Fight Night Prediction: Almeida vs. Lewis UFC Picks & UFC Odds
UFC Predictions & Almeida vs. Lewis Prediction & UFC Odds
- ⭐ Almeida to win via submission (-110) at BetMGM
- ⭐ Almeida to win via submission in round 1 (+145) at FanDuel
- ⭐ Lewis via KO/TKO (+470) at DraftKings
The UFC heads back to Sao Paulo in a stacked card full of Brazilian talent.
So, once again, we’ve rounded up all the UFC odds from the best online betting sites and put together our UFC predictions.
After a return to the win column last time out, Derrick Lewis fills in for the injured Curtis Blaydes and he is now +470 with DraftKings to get his record-breaking 15th UFC KO/TKO.
However Jailton Almeida is the heavy favorite in this main event, and he is now +145 to get back-to-back first round submission wins with FanDuel.
Let’s take a deeper look at our UFC predictions and UFC best bets for this weekend.
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Almeida vs. Lewis UFC Odds, Details & Form
The UFC is back in Brazil and there is a chance a Brazilian wins every single fight this weekend.
- 🏟 Location: Ibirapuera Arena, São Paulo Brazil
- 📅 Date: Saturday, November 4th, 2023
- 🕙 Time: 10pm ET
- 🥊 Main Event: Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis
- 🔥 Top Favorite: Almeida to win via submission in round 1 (+145) at FanDuel
- 📊 Fighter Stats: Jailton Almeida 19-2 | Derrick Lewis 27-1
- 📺 TV Channel: ESPN + PPV
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Jailton Almeida Form Prior to UFC Fight Night
After entering the UFC last February, Jailton Almeida has built up a reputation as one of the best heavyweights on the planet and rocketed himself into the top 10 of the heavyweight rankings.
He has now put together a 14-fight win streak and comes into this bout having won all five of his UFC fights by way of a finish.
Last time out, Almeida made easy work of Jairzinho Rozenstruik in round one after wrapping up another rear-naked choke, while he also defeated Shamil Abdurakhimov via TKO in round two back in January on another card set in Brazil.
Other victories in the UFC have seen him beat Anton Turkalj and Parker Porter with more rear-naked choke action, and the Brazilian also beat Danilo Marques on his UFC debut via TKO inside two minutes.
Derrick Lewis Form Prior to UFC Fight Night
Lewis comes into this matchup with only three weeks' notice after Curtis Blaydes pulled out through injury.
Ultimately, although this no doubt means he will not be in his best shape, it doesn’t change his tactics at all.
The American only tends to get a win via KO/TKO and has now won 22 of his 27 fights in this manner.
In fact, after registering his 14th knockout just four months ago against Marcos Rogério de Lima, Lewis has now extended his record as the greatest knockout artist in UFC history.
Almeida vs. Lewis UFC Best Bets
We’ve put together the UFC Fight Night best bets and our UFC picks for this weekend from the best online betting sites for UFC odds.
UFC Best Bet #1: Almeida to win via submission (-110) at BetMGM
Almeida has secured 12 of his 19 wins via submission and is unquestionably the best jiu-jitsu practitioner in the UFC heavyweight rankings.
In fact, three of those 12 submission wins have come in the UFC from five fights with the organization.
At odds of -110 at BetMGM, it’s clear to see where this one could go and the Brazilian will look to grab Lewis in one of his famous rear-naked chokes. What’s more, two of Lewis’ past five losses have been via submission too.
⭐ UFC Picks: Almeida to win via submission (-110) at BetMGM
UFC Best Bet #2: Almeida submission in round 1 (+145) at FanDuel
As the UFC odds favor a submission win for the Brazilian, we’re also heading for a round one pick for Almeida to do so.
In reality, the odds are not that different between winning via submission in any round and in round one.
Moreover, Almeida also managed to get a submission win over Rozenstruik in round one in his last fight, and he is a very similar fighter to Lewis.
At the same time, you also have to put into the equation how Lewis is taking this fight without a full training camp and lacks a considerable amount of cardio for a professional fighter even in one.
⭐ UFC 293 Picks: Almeida submission in round 1 (+145) at FanDuel
UFC Best Bet #3: Lewis via KO/TKO (+470) at DraftKings
Although the UFC odds and our UFC picks favor a victory for Almeida via submission, this wouldn’t be the first time where Lewis upsets the odds with a knockout.
He has done so against the likes of Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov over his illustrious UFC career and could well do so again here.
What’s more, anyone who possesses the power that Lewis does simply cannot be ruled out at any stage, as proven when he knocked out Volkov in the final 10 seconds of the fight after losing the bout for the most part.
⭐ UFC Picks: Lewis via KO/TKO (+470) at DraftKings
Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis Prediction & Final Thoughts
In reality, we give Lewis very little chance in this fight and our UFC picks confidently choose Almeida to win.
Lewis has famously struggled against grapplers at times and the likes of Daniel Cormier and Sergey Spivak have made easy work of him when a grappling exchange has happened.
What’s more, with a black belt in jiu-jitsu and an incredible amount of strength, we don’t see any other way in which Lewis avoids getting wrapped up in one of Almeida’s locks.
Given how Lewis infamously heads into this fight with weak cardio levels and also on such short notice, Almeida could also get the job done in round one.
UFC Best Bet: ⭐ Almeida to win via submission in round 1 (+145) at FanDuel
As we look forward to another UFC Fight Night, there's another exciting development for sports betting enthusiasts. Back in September, Kentucky launched online sports betting, paving the way for the emergence of new sports betting apps in Kentucky. This opens up a new realm of opportunities for fans and bettors alike. Stay tuned for more updates on this front.
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